England should be considered Women's World Cup favourites if Lionesses can beat Spain in their own backyard

It's hard to overstate just how good Spain are at home, and it is worth dwelling on that for a moment longer to really emphasise as much.

Some of the results La Roja have had on their own patch in recent times have been outstanding. Those in the Nations League finals are worth highlighting in particular, with Bermudez's side thumping Germany 3-0 in the final in Madrid in December, having battered Sweden 4-0 in Malaga six weeks earlier. Under previous head coach Montse Tome, in the 2024 edition of the tournament, they were similarly dominant, overcoming the Netherlands with a 3-0 win and beating France 2-0 in games in Seville.

These are not just heavy qualifying wins against unfancied nations or good results in friendly matches when the pressure is off. When expectations are high, in front of home crowds and in the latter stages of a competition, Spain have consistently turned up and not just eked out wins, but completely outclassed elite opposition.

For England to head to Mallorca this weekend without Leah Williamson, then, is a real blow. Yes, the Lionesses have learned to cope with her absence in a footballing sense in recent years, after the defender missed a significant period of time, and the 2023 Women's World Cup, due to an ACL tear, before being sidelined for most of the 2025-26 season. However, Wiliamson's leadership is so important, especially in a game like this.

Others will need to step up ahead of Friday's game, and potentially elsewhere, too. Lauren James' fitness is in doubt after the Chelsea star picked up a small injury last week, during the Blues' participation in the World Sevens tournament, and to be without such a talismanic figure would be a massive setback for an England side that will need the sort of magic she provides to overcome such a formidable opponent.

Those concerns contrast greatly with Spain's squad news, with La Roja having welcomed Aitana Bonmati back for the first time since she broke her leg on international duty in late November. The midfielder made her return from injury at the start of last month and has been gradually building her fitness back up with Barcelona, playing 90 minutes in their penultimate league fixture and another 45 minutes four days later. She should be in a good place ahead of Friday's game.

Bonmati's inclusion means Spain are essentially working with a fully-fit squad. Laia Aleixandri is the most high-profile player unavailable, after the former Manchester City and current Barcelona defender tore her ACL in February, while Jenni Hermoso has been left out of the squad once again.

Otherwise, it is all the names you would expect: Bonmati, Alexia Putellas, Patri Guijarro, Mariona Caldentey, Claudia Pina, Salma Paralluelo, Cata Coll, Mapi Leon, Ona Batlle and more.

Not that England will be fazed by the challenge. The Lionesses beat Spain in April despite Williamson not being available, with a centre-back pairing of Lotte Wubben-Moy and Esme Morgan keeping a clean sheet in an excellent performance. Limited midfield options, amid injuries to Ella Toone and Grace Clinton, didn't prove detrimental either, with 21-year-old Lucia Kendall doing an brilliant job in the biggest game of her career to date.

Last time England travelled to Spain, in the league phase of the 2025 Nations League campaign, they could well have come away with all three points, too. Alessia Russo put the European champions ahead after just 22 minutes, and they looked good for their lead, but Sarina Wiegman had one eye on the upcoming Euros as she subbed off all of Georgia Stanway, Lucy Bronze and Beth Mead early in the second half, before two fantastic goals from Pina gave La Roja the win.

It's too much to say the Lionesses would have won had Wiegman not made those substitutions - changes that would not have been made in a more important situation - but it certainly impacted the game in a negative way for England, while benefiting them in the long-term prior to that Euros triumph.

The team will certainly take positives from how that game played out before the subs. To do the double over Spain in this qualifying campaign would be quite a statement.

Even a point would be a great result for England on Friday, as that would secure automatic qualification for next summer's World Cup. Only the group winner will get that honour, with the other three teams all to have to navigate the play-offs.

It wouldn't be the end of the world to end up taking that route, with teams like England and Spain expected to have little trouble coming through eventually, but it changes the World Cup preparation picture entirely.

Looking at how the Lionesses built up to the 2023 tournament, they were able to organise friendlies against elite and varied opposition, including the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia, while also taking on Brazil in the Finalissima. Spain did similar, facing the U.S, Japan, China, Panama and Jamaica before their run to the title.

The ability to cherry-pick those challenges and take on different opposition is the luxury that the winner of this World Cup qualifying group will get. The other team, however, will spend the rest of 2026 taking on familiar foes in Europe and will be limited in how much they can learn and experience.

So, not only would a result against Spain on Friday play a big role in making England favourites for next year's World Cup, the favourable impact of that outcome on their tournament preparations would also play a role in elevating their standing.

How Wiegman approaches this game, then, will be fascinating. It's always tricky to devise a plan for a match that you only need a point from, even more so when it is against a team as good as Spain. To go in with an approach that settles for a draw is dangerous, while an attacking strategy can leave too many spaces at the back. England need to find that balance, something they did well in the home game at Wembley.

If the Lionesses can do that again, it would further cement Wiegman's place as perhaps the best coach in the international women's game. She is so good at getting things right in these big moments, as evidenced by the three successive European Championship titles she has won, and the back-to-back World Cup finals she has reached.

It would also put Wiegman and England into a wonderful position when it comes to trying to win that World Cup title that has so far eluded them both. To oust Spain to the one automatic qualifying spot, and thus have the freedom to prepare as desired for next summer's tournament, would combine to mark the Lionesses out as favourites for the trophy in 2027.