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How do betting odds work?
Bookmakers use odds as a way of showing the chance/probability of a certain outcome happening, with the lower the odds, the more chance of the outcome occurring.
Betting odds are also used to work out the potential profit of any winning bet, with the higher the odds the bigger the payout should the bet go on to win.
This Month's Biggest Footballing Action
January's offers up the end of AFCON, with the quarter finals getting underway on January 9th and 10th, with the following week seeing all of the semi's, third place playoff and final taking place.
The FA Cup third round is the main draw from the UK, with the biggest ties of the round seeing Man City hosting Exeter, Portsmouth facing Arsenal, Man United doing battle with Brighton and Spurs welcoming Aston Villa to north London.
The second Manchester derby of the season takes place on the 17th, with this being the biggest game of the month bar Arsenal vs Liverpool on the 8th.
The penultimate round of the Champions League league phase starts on the 20th, with the key games seeing Sporting facing PSG, Inter hosting Arsenal and Spurs facing Dortmund.
The 21st sees Marseille taking on Liverpool, Newcastle welcoming PSV to St James' Park and Juventus doing battle with Benfica.
The final round league phase games takes place the following week, with all games taking place at the same time on the 28th.
Dortmund vs Inter, Napoli vs Chelsea, PSG vs Newcastle, Benfica vs Real Madrid and PSV vs Bayern Munich are easily the biggest games of the round as we learn once and for all who's making the knockouts.
Arsenal vs Man United on the 25th and Liverpool vs Newcastle on the 31st are some of the biggest games of the month remaining from the Premier League, whilst from La Liga the biggest game sees Villarreal hosting Real Madrid on the 24th.
Understanding Betting Odds - Probability Explained
When researching your bets and revising the gambling industry, it won’t be long before you encounter probability. It’s such an important part of gambling, but it’s an area that’s underused and often misunderstood. Goal will put an end to that.
So, what is probability in sportsbook gambling? Probability refers to the likelihood of an outcome. It’s often displayed as a percentage and forms the basis of sports betting odds.
Let’s look at an example of probability in football betting.
Major bookmakers allow you to wager on the result of a coin toss at the start of a football or cricket match. As there are only two options, the probability of the toss resulting in heads is 50%, and the probability of it landing on tails is 50%. With that in mind, the betting odds would be even money heads and even money tails.
The above example is also a great example of how bookmakers make a profit, regardless of the result, first scorer, handicap or any market you choose. The coin toss is a 50/50 chance, so the odds should be even money heads and even money tails. But in most cases, it’s 10/11 heads and 10/11 tails, meaning the house takes a percentage if your bet wins or loses.
Understanding Betting Odds - Calculating Probability by Using Odds
It can be useful to calculate the probability of a bet landing before parting with your hard-earned cash or free bets.
Betting odds usually appear as a fraction or decimal. For example, a bet at 2/1 as a fraction is the same as a bet at 3.0 as a decimal. But I’ll focus on odds as a fraction for my examples, as it’s easier to recognise and understand.
The true maths of it ends up being:
Probability (%) = B / (A+B) for Fractional Odds - 10/1 (A/B) or 5/1 etc.
Probability (%) = (10 / A) / 10 for Decimal Odds - 11.00 (A) or 6.00 etc.
So:
For Fractional Odds:
- 1/4 becomes 3 / (1+3) = 0.75 - There is a 75% chance this will happen
- 1/1 becomes 1 / (1+1) = 0.50 - There is a 50% chance this will happen
- 4/1 becomes 1 / (4+1) = 0.20 - There is a 20% chance this will happen
- 9/1 becomes 1 / (8+1) = 0.10 - There is a 10% chance this will happen
Or for Decimal Odds:
- 1.25 becomes (10 / 1.25) / 10 = 0.8 - There is a 80% chance this will happen
- 2.00 becomes (10 / 2) / 10 = 0.5 - There is a 50% chance this will happen
- 5.00 becomes (10 / 5) / 10 = 0.2 - There is a 20% chance this will happen
- 10.00 becomes (10 / 10) / 10 = 0.1 - There is a 10% chance this will happen
Understanding Betting Odds - Reading Odds and Prices
Understanding how to read betting odds was more important a generation ago than it is today. With online sportsbooks, you add a selection to your bet slip and input your desired stake, and it’ll automatically show the cost of the bet and the potential returns based on the odds.
Knowing how to read odds still has some uses, including when considering a cash-out offer, and it’s easy to do when you know how.
In its simplest form, the first number is how much you’d win if you staked the second number. 100/1 = £100 profit for a £1 stake.
Suppose you’re considering a bet on Arsenal to win the UEFA Champions League at odds of 10/1. That price means that for every £1 spent, you’ll make a £10 profit if your bet wins.
- Odds of 10/1, a £1 stake = £10 in profit + £1 stake = £11 returned
Odds with the highest number displayed first are known as odds-against, and 10/1 could be an outsider. A £10 bet at 10/1 returns £110. That’s 10x your stake as well as your original £10 back.
It’s a similar story when betting on hot favourites with small odds. A bet with a 1/2 price is known as odds-on, as it’s a bottom-heavy fraction. With a bet at 1/2, every £2 bet wins you £1 or £20 bet earns a £10 profit.
- Odds of 1/2, a £1 stake = $0.50 in profit + £1 stake = £1.5 returned.
Some of the best betting apps, including exchanges, show their betting odds in decimal form, and that’s just as easy to work out. Here’s how:
Suppose you bet on Haaland to score first in the Manchester Derby at 7.0 (equal to 6/1). A £5 stake at odds of 7.0 pays £35 (5x7).
Understand Betting Odds - Fractional Odds Explained
Visit any legal online sportsbook, and the odds will likely be displayed in the popular fractional format. An example of fractional odds would be 2/1.
Fractional odds are often used as most sports bettors are familiar with them, and they’re easy to understand, clearly showing what you’d win for a small stake. With odds on bets, you’ll win the larger number if you stake the smaller number. With odds-on, you’ll win the smaller value when you bet the higher.
When landing a sportsbook winner, it’s important to remember you also get your stake back. A £10 bet at 10/1 pays £110. That’s 10x your stake and the initial payment returned.
You’ll also see plenty of bets with less clean-cut odds, such as 5/2. Betting on a 5/2 shot is the same as betting on a 2.5/1, meaning you get 2.5x your stake.
Understanding Betting Odds - Decimal Odds Explained
The best betting sites allow you to change how the odds are displayed on their betting website and app, putting you in complete control.
If decimal odds make more sense to you and are easier to understand, you can switch the display in the member’s area of your betting account. The odds will instantly change, with 10/1 becoming 11.0
Some betters prefer to use decimal odds as it includes the stake in your return. As mentioned above, a £10 bet at 10/1 = £100 profit, and you must remember to add your stake to the final number. But when 10/1 is displayed as a decimal, it’s 11.0. You now know you must multiply your stake by 11, and that shows your returns.
Selecting decimal or fractional odds is a matter of personal preference and which is easier for you to understand. Choosing one over the other gives no advantage whatsoever.
Understanding Betting Odds - American Odds Explained
American odds is the third and final form of sports betting odds you may encounter as an online gambler. If you’re gambling with a UK bookmaker, American odds is an option, but it’s not nearly as popular as the two mentioned above.
What are American odds? Using the 10/1 (11.0) example, the American odds equivalent is +1000.
As you can see, American odds carry a plus sign if they are odds against and a minus sign to show a bet is odds-on.
Suppose you’re gambling on football and pick Chelsea to lift the FA Cup at +250. The number is how much you’d win off a £100 stake. That means if you wager £100 on Chelsea and they lift the cup, you’ll earn a £250 profit and your £100 stake = £350.