Sunderland host Chelsea on the final day and have won just 1 of their last 6 at home. Could Everton relegate Spurs and sneak into 10th in the process?
| Premier League to Finish Top Half Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1/250 |
| Brentford | 1/25 |
| Sunderland | 6/5 |
| Newcastle United | 13/8 |
| Fulham | 7/2 |
| Everton | 6/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Has Chelsea’s midweek win helped them avoid a bottom-half finish?
With two games remaining, managerless Chelsea appeared vulnerable to clubs on the fringes of the top half. They sat in tenth place on the same points as Newcastle, Everton and Fulham. However, a gritty 2-1 home win over London rivals Tottenham seems to have done enough to keep them above the bottom half.
The Blues have won only one of their last eight Premier League games and lost the FA Cup final to Man City last weekend. Yet, it’s almost impossible to see them falling into 11th place or lower on the final day.
Chelsea sit three points ahead of 11th-placed Newcastle, with a +7 goal difference advantage over the Magpies. There would need to be a serious shift for the Blues to be in danger.
The bookies make Chelsea 47% favourites to win at Sunderland on the final day anyway. The vulnerability was real a week ago - it isn’t any more.
All eyes are on the north-east
One of the big subplots on the final day this weekend revolves around bitter north-east rivals Newcastle and Sunderland. The latter did the double over Newcastle this season, but the Magpies could still end the season above their rivals.
For a Newcastle team carrying far heavier expectations, finishing the campaign below their fiercest rivals would be a major blow. Heading into the final day of the season, Newcastle are in 11th place, two points behind 10th-placed Sunderland.
Both sides are heavily favoured in the betting market to clinch 10th place. However, the reality is that neither team has the form to ensure a comfortable final day.
Newcastle must win at Fulham. This is by no means a foregone conclusion as they average just 0.94 points per game away this season. The Magpies have won only three times away from Tyneside in 2025/26, scoring just twice in their last three away trips.
Their advantage is neutral goal difference (0), which is seven better than Sunderland’s (-7). Sunderland host Chelsea on the final day — another difficult game to predict.
The Stadium of Light was a serious fortress for Sunderland earlier in the season. However, they’ve since won just one of their last six home matches. A recent heavy 5-0 loss to Forest suggested fatigue may be catching up with Regis Le Bris’ men.
Of the two teams, Newcastle seem more likely to edge out Sunderland. Fulham have picked up just five points from their last six games and have little left to play for. Their much-improved goal difference could also play a factor. However, if they fail to win in west London, their chances become almost non-existent, offering little value in return.
Could Brentford’s season fizzle out in bottom half disappointment?
Brentford have had a far better campaign than most analysts expected pre-season. Under rookie boss, Keith Andrews, the Bees have pushed for a place in Europe next season. While this remains a possibility on the final day, they could yet finish in the bottom half.
Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace felt like two points dropped when a win would have all but secured a top-half finish. It would have strengthened their case for Conference League football too.
That leaves them in 9th place on 52 points with a +3 goal difference. They have a tough final day assignment against a Liverpool side preparing to say farewell to Mo Salah.
If Brentford lose against the Reds, Sunderland win and one of Everton or Newcastle claim victory, the Bees would likely drop into 11th place. It would be a bad afternoon of results given that goal difference is firmly on Brentford’s side. Nevertheless, a season that promised so much could end in disappointment.
Why the upper half finish value is centred on Everton
Everton and Fulham are the two remaining teams that could make a late claim for a top 10 finish. Both sides are on 49 points, level with Newcastle, but with poorer goal differences of -2 and -6, respectively.
Fortunately for Everton, they have arguably the easiest final day fixture on paper. The Toffees travel to Tottenham, who need at least a point to secure survival on the final day.
Spurs have won just two of their 18 home games so far this season, losing a staggering 10 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Everton’s away form (1.44 points per game) is also better than their home form (1.21 points per game) this season.
The Toffees have lost 33% of their away games in 2025/26, with David Moyes helping them become more resolute on the road. With no relegation fears, Everton can enjoy the final day of the season. They’ll be the ones to spoil Spurs’ hopes and potentially send Spurs down to the second tier.
Fulham’s chances of a top 10 finish are slimmer than Everton’s thanks to their goal difference. Meanwhile, their opponents Newcastle are also determined to finish above Sunderland.
A win for Everton means they’d require Chelsea to avoid defeat at Sunderland. Fulham will also need to put up some resistance and avoid defeat against Newcastle. Fulham’s form at Craven Cottage is solid, having won ten of their 18 home matches in 2025/26.
That’s why we believe Everton are the team to back. The Toffees have a better chance of a top 10 finish than the 14.29% probability being offered by the betting markets.