Chelsea’s transfer business can upset the Premier League top-four odds

With no continental fixtures, smart transfer business, and tweaked tactics, Chelsea can shatter bookmakers’ expectations and break into the top four. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Chelsea reshape the top-four picture

The value in the top-four market lies beyond Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool. Chelsea’s appeal grew significantly after some of their transfer business. With a higher price than some of their closest rivals, such as Manchester United, backing the Blues to break into the top four seems worthwhile.

The West Londoners will be under new management this term, with former Liverpool midfielder Xabi Alonso taking the hotseat. That appointment alone forces one to sit up and take notice of what Chelsea are doing. 

A change in formation is likely when Alonso gets his first-team members into Cobham. As a result, when the Premier League season starts, the Blues could mean serious business. Similar shifts have taken place over in the red half of Manchester, but they’re odds-on favourites to secure a top-four finish once again.

This will be Michael Carrick’s first full season in charge. Judging by his points return last term, United are favoured to get into the top four. The Red Devils had 32 points from 21 fixtures before Carrick took over and earned 39 points from 17 games under him. Tottenham and Aston Villa currently sit as outsiders in the race for Champions League qualification.

Alonso’s tactical shift could unlock Chelsea

Chelsea stand out as one of the most intriguing options in this market because there is a clear argument behind their price. Alonso has taken charge after a disappointing campaign. While a managerial change doesn’t guarantee instant consistency, it gives the squad a clearer direction. Their transfer window activity shows this intent, with the acquisition of Marco Palestra, Geovany Quenda, and Morgan Rogers.

Palestra was on loan at Cagliari last term, where he turned out as a full-back and wing-back. His performances earned him the Serie A Defender of the Year title, which is why Alonso could switch to a back three. He ranked third for Cagliari with 49 tackles in 37 appearances, while he won 108 fouls for them, the most in the team.

Quenda arrives as another wing-back option after being named Primeira Liga Young Player of the Season last term.

England international Rogers is the most exciting signing so far after joining Chelsea for a club record £117 million. He scored 10 league goals last term and took 84 shots in total, the fifth-most across the division. Rogers has credited Alonso as a key influence behind his move to Chelsea. He is expected to operate alongside Cole Palmer as one of two number 10s.

Chelsea should be taken seriously. They posted 66.53 xG in the 2025/26 Premier League season, only behind Manchester City’s 71.01. The problem is they scored just 58 goals, underperforming their xG by -8.53. Their xGA (goals against) per 90 of 1.35 was a concern last season. Only four teams recorded higher numbers, three of which were relegated.

United remain the safer top-four play

Carrick has recognised the need to improve his midfield options. That is why he brought in Youri Tielemans and former Chelsea player Andrey Santos. They will add much-needed physicality and technical quality to United’s midfield. From an attacking perspective, the Red Devils aren’t struggling. They scored 69 goals, +3.51 more than their season xG of 65.49.

With Casemiro departed, it remains to be seen if United will still pose a threat from set pieces. Last season, they scored 19 goals from dead-ball situations, second only to champions Arsenal. Chelsea, meanwhile, conceded 17 goals from the same situations. Only Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, and Liverpool have shipped more.

Carrick’s men also recorded the most shots in the division with 596 and the most shots on target with 216. Defensively, they shipped two fewer goals (50) than Chelsea’s 52, with an xGA of 48.57 compared to the Blues’ 52.26. In United’s defence, no other team in the Premier League won more ground duels than their 51.8%.

However, the search for further midfield reinforcements continues. Missing out on key targets leaves a bit of uncertainty in the middle of the pitch. United have the stronger recent output, so backing Chelsea only makes sense if the Blues are significantly better priced. If the odds are tight, United may well be the safer call.

Spurs’ summer investment could spark a rise

Tottenham are likely to attract support for a top-four charge given their massive summer spending. Spurs have spent more than £270 million on new signings, including £185 million on midfielders alone, so the market will naturally expect progress. After finishing consecutive seasons in 17th place, it appears they’re set to climb up the standings in this upcoming campaign.

Still, the underlying numbers are hard to ignore, with Spurs producing the weakest xG of all four teams at 40.09. On the defensive side, they conceded 57 goals, with only West Ham (65), Wolves (68), and Burnley (75) shipping more. Despite those issues, Roberto De Zerbi may look to build around one of Tottenham’s biggest strengths in their push for a top-four place.

Spurs scored 19 goals from set-pieces, level with Manchester United. Those goals account for 39.58% of Tottenham’s total 48 league goals last term.

Spurs are expected to progress quickly, considering the hefty spending over the summer, with more still to come. It’s worth noting that Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes, Jan Paul Van Hecke, Andy Robertson and Marcos Senesi all carry Premier League experience. However, they are difficult to support for a top-four finish given the quality of the competition and the relative inexperience of this group of players.

Villa’s departures create uncertainty

The case for Aston Villa rests on their defence. They boast the best numbers among these four contenders. The Villans conceded 49 goals last season, with only Arsenal (27), Man City (35), Brighton (46), and Sunderland (48) letting in fewer. Villa’s xGA was 53.92, which means they outperformed it by -4.92 goals.

The attacking side is less convincing, as Unai Emery’s men posted 48.20 expected goals, which is behind Chelsea and Manchester United. A worrying factor is that they’ve lost two crucial players in Tielemans and Rogers, both to fellow top-four challengers. With Tielemans involved, Villa enjoyed a win rate of 53% compared to 41% in his absence.

Villa have signed Joao Gomes and Johan Manzambi in central midfield, but the squad are still too light to compete in the league and in Europe. All these factors contribute to Villa fetching a higher price to finish in the top four. They achieved the feat last season after a projected 12th-place finish on expected points.

With their biggest players departing and new players likely to need time to settle into the Premier League, it’s best to avoid Villa in this market.