Thomas Tuchel’s side didn’t concede a goal in qualifying, but their display in Dallas suggests they may throw more caution to the wind this summer.
| England World Cup markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| England -1.5, -2.0 Asian Handicap vs Ghana | 5/6 |
| Harry Kane to score anytime vs Ghana | 8/11 |
| England -1.5, -2.0 Asian Handicap vs Panama | 1/1 |
| England to reach the semi-finals | 13/8 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Three Lions pass their biggest group test with flying colours
England had one of their best attacking performances for many years against Croatia. In a group that also features Ghana and Panama, a more conservative approach to their toughest fixture might have been expected. However, on this evidence, Tuchel has reformed the team into an attacking force that can dominate against even elite opposition.
Whether an ageing Croatia side truly fall into that category is debatable. However, Zlatko Dalic’s team certainly boast vast tournament experience and a terrific World Cup record.
A brace from Harry Kane before the break, followed by second-half strikes from Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford, sealed the victory. It was England’s first World Cup win against a top-15 ranked side since 2002 against Argentina. A miserable run of two draws and seven defeats in such fixtures, including six straight losses, preceded Thursday’s match.
There were still shades of the Gareth Southgate era before the interval, with a clear reliance on set-pieces. Of the 1.36 xG England created in the first half, 0.96 came from dead balls.
Encouragingly for England fans, Tuchel showcased his ability to react to in-game situations by making some positive half-time tweaks. Those helped free up Kane, as a more aggressive Three Lions went on to force many mistakes from their opponents.
The Euro 2024 runners-up had nine shots on target in the second half, compared to three before the interval. They pressed higher up the pitch, with 7.1% of their ball recoveries coming in Croatian territory. England didn’t win the ball in the opposing half once in the opening 45 minutes.
Tuchel’s team also showed much more composure on the ball later in the game. Their passing accuracy beyond the halfway line rose from 47.5% in the first half to 73.2% after the break.
Can Kane lead free-scoring England deep into the tournament?
With the likes of Brazil, Spain and Portugal struggling on Matchday one, England’s odds to win the tournament have shortened. They are now given an implied probability of around 12% of going on to lift the trophy.
However, the markets still price in their more conservative past. Both in recent tournaments, and in the build-up to this World Cup, England matches frequently failed to excite. There was strong reason to think they would advance from this group with some low-margin victories.
Their expectation-defying four-goal showing against Croatia must have been a huge confidence boost. With the pressure off, and Tuchel blessed with immense attacking depth, the defences of Ghana and Panama will find it tough going.
Having the likes of Marcus Rashford, Morgan Rogers and Bukayo Saka to bring off the bench is a huge positive. With fresh legs, those players are capable of exploiting space against tiring backlines. With that in mind, England appear to offer value in the handicap markets against each of their next two opponents.
With Kane in arguably the best form of his career, the goals should also continue to flow for the Three Lions captain. His early penalty against Croatia made him just the second England player to score at three separate World Cups. Only David Beckham, between 1998 and 2006, had previously achieved that feat.
Kane took seven shots in Dallas, hit the target on three occasions and registered 1.03 xG. He is capable of scoring all types of goals, from headers to solo strikes, while he’s also reliable from the spot.
The Bayern Munich man has scored more than 100 career penalties, with a conversion rate just shy of 90%. Excluding shootouts, he has now scored from 12 yards on five occasions at the World Cup, setting a record. That varied threat makes him a solid anytime goalscorer pick whenever he takes to the field.
With Kane in such sensational form, and England’s other attacking stars shining, the Three Lions should go deep. They are worth backing to reach the semi-finals with an implied probability of 38%.