Luis de la Fuente’s side deservedly claimed glory at Euro 2024, but new doubts have emerged heading into this summer’s tournament.
| Spain World Cup Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain to be eliminated in the Round of 32 | 10/3 |
| Spain to be eliminated by penalty shootout | 3/1 |
| Top team goalscorer - Mikel Oyarzabal | 7/4 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Spain bidding to put recent World Cup woes behind them
Following the glory years between 2008 and 2012, the Spanish national team endured a poor decade of results. As the golden generation gradually bowed out, their football at major tournaments became slow and predictable.
If one game could sum up that period, it was their Round of 16 exit against Morocco at the 2022 World Cup. In 120 minutes of football, La Roja completed 967 passes and had 77% of the ball. However, they created just 0.61 xG and were knocked out on penalties after a goalless draw.
Since winning the trophy for the first time in 2010, Spain have won just three World Cup matches. While they’ve only been beaten on three occasions in regulation time, penalty shootout losses have proven costly. The Iberians haven’t won a knockout match at the tournament since their trip to South Africa 16 years ago.
Over the past three World Cups, Spain have conceded 1.45 goals per game while scoring 1.82 goals per game in regulation time. However, their attacking stats are much less impressive when a 7-0 group-stage win over Costa Rica in Qatar is excluded.
Spain’s poor defensive record is even more concerning, despite them facing just 6.73 shots per match over that period. Vulnerabilities to fast breaks and goalkeeping errors have been contributing factors.
All of La Roja’s recent woes were seemingly swept aside when they won Euro 2024. De la Fuente’s solution was to put his faith in two fast, skillful wingers. With Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal excelling, the 2010 world champions appeared to be back at their best.
That form has largely held since then. Spain haven’t lost a competitive match in regulation time since a 2-0 defeat to Scotland in 2023. However, there was fresh penalty shootout pain in last year's Nations League final against Portugal.
Will the favourites falter this summer?
Spain were swiftly made the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup following their success in Germany two summers ago. That was understandable, given they seemed to be a class above the other European teams in that competition. However, there is reason to think they no longer justify their short price to triumph again in North America.
De la Fuente has fitness concerns over the two players who made all the difference at Euro 2024. Lamine Yamal has not featured since April due to a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, Nico Williams has endured an injury-ravaged campaign, during which he registered only nine goal contributions in La Liga.
While both should be fit to feature in the group stage, the duo may take some time to hit top gear. That could again leave Spain vulnerable in the first knockout round. They’ve fallen at that hurdle at the last two World Cups.
La Roja should finish in the first two positions in Group H. That would see them face opposition from Group J in the Round of 32.
Austria may lie in wait, but an early showdown with holders Argentina at that stage is also a real possibility. Given their recent World Cup history, there is value in backing Spain to be eliminated in the Round of 32 at long odds.
After three penalty shootout exits in the past four major tournaments, De la Fuente’s team will also be dreading spot-kicks. Backing them to exit in that manner again appeals with an implied probability of 25%.
Picking Mikel Oyarzabal to be his team’s top scorer is another Spain betting angle that seems good. The Real Sociedad man netted six times in six appearances during World Cup qualifying. He has already scored 15 goals in 2026 for club and country.
Williams and Yamal may only be fit enough for a place on the bench against Cape Verde. They’ll still be lacking sharpness on matchday two against Saudi Arabia. That should leave Oyarzabal well placed to work up a lead on Spain’s other main attacking threats.