Heidenheim are attempting a previously unlikely survival bid, while Hoffenheim are still aiming for a Champions League qualification spot for 26/27.
| 16-17 May ‘Dead Rubber’ Matches | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest/Draw (Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest) | 13/10 |
| Hoffenheim to Win (Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim) | 13/20 |
| Heidenheim to Win (Heidenheim vs Mainz) | 9/10 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Free hit at Old Trafford for a Forest side safe from relegation
The main dead rubber in the Premier League this weekend is at Old Trafford. Manchester United look all but certain to finish in third place. Meanwhile, West Ham's inability to defeat Arsenal last week ensured Forest would avoid relegation, maintaining a seven-point gap with two games to play.
Vitor Pereira's side travel to Old Trafford this weekend unbeaten in their last eight league games, with four wins and four draws. This includes a bold fightback at the Etihad Stadium to earn a 2-2 draw at Manchester City.
Before their 1-1 draw with Newcastle last weekend, they'd averaged four goals per game in each of their previous three matches.
Meanwhile, United only need one point to clinch third place and a return to the Champions League next season. They've been somewhat lackluster in terms of attack, racking up just 0.48 xG in their goalless draw with Sunderland.
United are seemingly stale, and several of their players are starting to think about this summer’s World Cup. Meanwhile, Forest have been in excellent goalscoring form. Taking on Forest and the draw in the Double Chance market at a probability of only 43.48% is at serious value. Both camps would satisfy the requirements of both camps.
Hoffenheim looking to pip Stuttgart to fourth on the final day
Going into the final day of the Bundesliga season, both VfB Stuttgart and Hoffenheim are level on 61 points in fourth and fifth place, respectively. Only one of these sides will clinch a place in next season’s Champions League.
Hoffenheim’s final day opponents, Borussia Monchengladbach, are safe from relegation. They secured their future several weeks ago. They’ve drawn their last five successive league games, drifting towards the season’s finish line.
The good news for Hoffenheim is that Stuttgart travel to seventh-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, who still have a chance of qualifying for Europe.
However, their inferior goal difference means only a win is likely to be enough for Hoffenheim if Stuttgart fail to win in Frankfurt. That’s why backing Hoffenheim to win at a probability of 58.14% is a value play.
Can Heidenheim pull off the ‘Great Escape’?
Five games ago, Heidenheim seemed to be destined to stay at the bottom of the Bundesliga. However, they've drawn level with Wolfsburg and St. Pauli after securing 10 points from their last five games.
Outright survival isn’t an option for Heidenheim. However, a home win over Mainz this weekend would give them a chance of reaching the relegation playoff. This is a scenario they would have been satisfied with eight weeks ago.
Eight games ago, they trailed 16th place by ten points. However, notable wins, as well as a bold 3-3 draw with newly crowned champions Bayern, helped set up more final-day drama.
In fact, it's the first time in Bundesliga history that all three teams in the bottom three are on the same points tally.
For those who want more drama, 17th and 16th meet on Saturday. A draw there, coupled with a Heidenheim win, will lead to the playoff route. Wolfsburg have scored three more goals than either side. This means Heidenheim need a commanding performance against a 10th-placed Mainz with nothing left to play for.
Heidenheim’s Bundesliga run has been dramatic from start to finish. They secured promotion to the top flight with a 99th-minute goal. Meanwhile, they’ve already saved themselves in the relegation playoff route once in 2024/25.
Combining all three selections into one dead rubber acca this weekend offers a potential return of £75.16 from a £10 bet.