Conceding 1.71 goals per game last season led to Spurs finishing 17th in the Premier League table. Will a tighter backline mean fewer goals in 25/26?
| Tottenham vs Burnley Markets | Odds |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 13/10 |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 4/5 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Will Thomas Frank prioritise safety at Spurs?
All the pre-season indicators suggest that Frank is working hard to tighten up his new team at the back. They kept a rare clean sheet in their friendly win over bitter rivals Arsenal before drawing 1-1 with Newcastle.
Spurs restricted the Gunners to just one shot on target in their friendly win, while Newcastle also managed just two attempts on target. That’s despite Spurs surrendering 62% of possession to the Magpies. These are encouraging signs for those eyeing Unders bets.
Their upcoming friendly against Bayern Munich, followed by the European Super Cup against PSG, will offer further insight into the defensive progress under Frank.
Tottenham’s activity in the summer transfer window should also improve their defensive shape. Portuguese defensive midfielder Joao Palhinha has joined on a season-long loan from Bayern Munich, with plans for a permanent switch next summer.
Palhinha’s positional awareness and experience are just what this Spurs midfield needs right now.
The signing of Austrian centre-back Kevin Danso from Lens should also give Frank another central defensive option with speed and power. This will ease the strain on Micky van de Ven, who has struggled with injuries since moving to north London.
Ultimately, Tottenham’s defensive record can’t get any worse than last season, so Frank is well-positioned to improve their 2024/25 metrics.
Value lies on Unders for Spurs vs Burnley opener
At the time of writing, the bookmakers believe there’s only a 43.48% chance that Tottenham’s home opener against Burnley could end with two or fewer goals scored.
There are two key reasons why this seems undervalued. The first is Spurs' dreadful defensive record from last season.
This will live long in the memory of Tottenham fans. Frank was appointed largely because Ange Postecoglu struggled to develop a pragmatic team capable of switching styles during games.
In his former job, Frank was known as one of the Premier League’s most pragmatic managers, guiding Brentford to safe mid-table positions on a relatively limited budget.
The Dane won’t allow his team to be caught up in end-to-end matches week after week.
Secondly, the betting markets seem to underestimate the defensive solidity of Tottenham’s opening day opponents, Burnley.
The Clarets equalled the record for the highest number of clean sheets in a season in the EFL, registering 30 shut-outs in their 46 Championship games last term.
Burnley only lost two of their 46 fixtures and conceded just 16 goals over the course of the entire season.
Some of this can be attributed to former keeper James Trafford, who has departed for former club, Manchester City. Still, Scott Parker’s backline remains intact.
In fact, Parker has strengthened the backline with the savvy free transfer signing of former Ipswich defender, Axel Tuanzebe. Chelsea’s promising full-back, Bashir Humphreys, is another good long-term investment.
As this game is Burnley’s first game back in the Premier League, Parker will be keen to make a statement. They will once again aim to remain defensively solid while posing their own threats on the counter-attack.