Looking for their first AFC Championship Game appearance in team history, the Houston Texans take on the New England Patriots (-3) today. Both teams played in low-scoring Wild Card contests, making under 40.5 points (-105) a popular pick here.
Texans vs Patriots Predictions - 3:00pm ET - 1/18
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
- Drake Maye 40+ Rushing Yards @ 23/20 with bet365
- Texans Under 19.5 Points @ 17/20 with bet365
- Under 40.5 Points @ 20/21 with bet365
Maye to Making Moves
In the 16-3 Wild Card win over the Chargers, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye became the youngest player in NFL history to gain 250 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in a playoff victory. Maye may have turned the ball over twice, but he made some big plays.
He managed a 37-yard gain on a scramble in the second quarter and totaled 66 rushing yards. Maye has now run for 40+ yards in three of his previous five games. Facing a similarly formidable pass defense against the Texans, he may need to make plays with his legs again.
Expect some broken plays where Maye takes off, and the Texans struggle to contain him. After all, the Texans rank second in pressure rate in the NFL. The +116 odds on Maye to pick up 40+ rushing yards are favorable.
- Texans vs Patriots Prediction 1: Drake Maye 40+ Rushing Yards @ 23/20 with bet365
Texans’ Offensive Troubles
Despite scoring 30 points in the Wild Card victory over the Steelers, the Texans' offense didn’t exactly look impressive. The Texans’ defense scored two touchdowns on turnovers, and QB C.J. Stroud fumbled the ball five times, two of which were lost, and threw an interception.
Ever since his Week 9 concussion, Stroud has been less mobile and has looked more flustered in the pocket. The Patriots sacked Chargers QB Justin Herbert six times last week and allowed only three points. Pats’ opponents have averaged under 8 PPG over the previous three games.
So, the Texans could struggle to put points on the board today. RB Woody Marks had a big day against the Steelers, but he struggled during the season. The Patriots also allowed just 87 rushing yards to the Chargers.
If they shut down the Texans’ running game, it’ll be up to Stroud to make plays, which will be more difficult with WR Nico Collins doubtful. In Stroud’s two career Divisional Playoff Games, his Texans have averaged 12 points. Houston is likely to score under 20 points here, too.
- Texans vs Patriots Prediction 2: Texans Under 19.5 Points @ 17/20 with bet365
Under Looking Likely
While the Texans could run into their fair share of offensive troubles tonight, they can also make life difficult for Drake Maye and the Patriots. The Texans shut down the Steelers’ offense in the Wild Card round and had the second-best turnover margin in the NFL in the regular season.
Houston also had the second-best scoring defense, allowing just 17.4 points per game. With relatively inexperienced quarterbacks on either side, expect some growing pains. These teams allowed a combined nine points in the Wild Card, and their defenses are peaking at the right time.
With Texans’ star receiver Nico Collins questionable with a concussion, Houston will be more predictable on offense if he can’t play. Recall that the Texans are on a ten-game winning streak, though, and it has been driven by defense.
Take under 40.5 points (-105) today.
- Texans vs Patriots Prediction 3: Under 40.5 Points @ 20/21 with bet365