Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle are among the underperforming teams. They hope for a change of direction in the final weeks of the season.
| Premier League specials | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sunderland to finish above Newcastle | 13/8 |
| Liverpool to finish exactly 6th | 4/1 |
| Tottenham to pick up 4-6 points from their next 3 fixtures | 11/10 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
De Zerbi takes charge of Spurs as the Premier League returns
With the international break followed by the FA Cup quarter-final weekend, it has been a quiet period for many clubs. Struggling Tottenham are one of those hoping the pause will allow them to reset.
The sacking of Igor Tudor was almost inevitable following their 3-0 loss to relegation rivals Nottingham Forest last time out. Former Brighton and Marseille boss Roberto De Zerbi has been appointed as his successor.
De Zerbi has benefitted from a decent period to work with his new players and get his ideas across. That would have been much more difficult had he been thrust into the job only a few days before a match. The break has also given the likes of Mohammed Kudus, Rodrigo Bentancur and Guglielmo Vicario more time to return to fitness.
The Italian boss needs to make an immediate impact with only seven games to go. He did so in his last job, taking 13 points from his first five Ligue 1 matches in charge of Marseille. However, Brighton only collected two points from their first five outings under De Zerbi in 2022.
Elsewhere, storms are also brewing at Newcastle and Liverpool. Eddie Howe is feeling the heat after Sunderland completed a derby double over the Magpies in March. The Mackems could even rub salt into their rivals’ wounds by finishing higher in the table.
Meanwhile, Arne Slot is now at serious risk of losing his Liverpool job. A 4-0 defeat to Man City in the FA Cup was the latest setback. After a record-breaking summer transfer window, missing out on Champions League qualification would be a disaster for the inconsistent Reds.
How will the key races develop?
With no cup fixtures remaining, Man Utd are already in a great position to finish in the top five. Aston Villa also claimed a key win last time out to move five points clear of Liverpool. Meanwhile, despite their poor form, Chelsea have no more European distractions.
The intensity of the Reds’ Champions League quarter-final with PSG could benefit their rivals in the top-five race. That could lead to fatigue in some tough end-of-season Premier League fixtures.
They still have to play all the other teams ranked between third and ninth. That includes difficult trips to Old Trafford and Villa Park, as well as a first Merseyside derby at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Backing the Reds to finish exactly sixth offers great value, with an implied probability of 20%.
At the bottom, Tottenham’s next match is away to Sunderland, who have lost their last three at the Stadium of Light. That suggests Spurs, who drew their last road game at Anfield, can get a result.
That is followed by a reunion with Brighton for De Zerbi at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. With more managers than home wins this season, the hosts could struggle in that one.
Spurs then face a crucial trip to bottom club Wolves on the final weekend of April. De Zerbi should make his mark by that point, while some injured players will likely return. That winnable clash suggests backing the North Londoners to collect four to six points from their next three games is the preferred option.
The season match bet between Newcastle and Sunderland is another interesting subplot. The Mackems are currently one point clear and seem to be the value pick, with an implied probability of 38.1%. They still have to play three of the bottom five, while four of their final seven games are at home.
By contrast, Newcastle have four remaining road matches. Only four teams have picked up fewer away points than the Magpies’ tally of 16 this season. Even their recent home form has been inconsistent, with one win in five outings at St James’ Park in all competitions.