With a meaner defence and a five-game winning streak, Real have a chance to make headway. None of their next five opponents are in the top six.
| 2025/26 La Liga winner market | Odds |
| Barcelona | 8/13 |
| Real Madrid | 6/5 |
| Atletico Madrid | 200/1 |
| Villarreal | 250/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Reasons to be positive about Real’s La Liga title chances
The underlying data gives us reason for optimism surrounding Real’s title bid. They are narrowly underperforming their xG at home and away right now.
Real currently average an xG of 2.36 goals per home game versus 2.27 home goals per game. Away from the Bernabeu, they average 2 goals per game at an xG average of 2.01.
Their home form has been nothing short of sensational. They’ve lost once and won ten of their 11 home matches, conceding only seven goals. Defensively speaking, they are much more watertight than Barcelona away from home. Barca have shipped 18 goals in 12 games to Real’s 11 goals in 12 matches.
Looking ahead to the next month of the season, Real have a real opportunity to lay down a marker. Their next five La Liga fixtures are scheduled against sides currently outside the top six of the division.
These include games against Osasuna and Celta Vigo, both of whom have struggled against sides at the top end of the table this season. They also face city rivals, Getafe, who have the joint-third lowest goals scored tally in 25/26.
This five-game run ends with a home game against Elche in mid-March. The team have lost their last three games and sit just two points above the relegation zone.
It’s not until May 10 that Real lock horns with Barca for the second El Clasico of the season. There’s no doubt things are likely to remain in the balance until then.
That’s why we’re happy to take on the bookies who currently give Real less than a coinflip (44.44%) chance of winning the title. It’s much closer to an even-money shot right now.
Can Barca be derailed?
Hansi Flick’s Barca have swept all before them on home soil this season. They are the only team in the division with a 100% home record after 11 matches played. Their record surpasses Real’s home tally, having conceded just five goals in those 11 games.
They are also La Liga’s entertainers, having scored 63 goals in 23 matches, 14 more than Real. Their matches average almost four (3.74) goals per game in 25/26, which underlines the efficiency of their attack.
However, if we’re taking a data-led approach to the La Liga winner market, Barca appear slightly vulnerable to a regression to the mean.
They currently generate an xG of 2.26 per home and away game. However, they average 3.09 goals per home game and 2.42 goals per away game.
In addition, their xGA at home is 0.87, well above their average goals conceded per home game (0.45). All it would take is for Ferran Torres, Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski to stop converting low-probability chances. Barca’s matches would become much more competitive.
Looking ahead to Barca’s next five games, two of them stand out as potential pitfalls. They host Villarreal, who are comfortably in fourth place after a 64% win average so far in 25/26.
They then travel to Athletic Club Bilbao, who are always a force to be reckoned with in front of their own fans. Bilbao average 1.67 points per home game and just 0.73 points per away game.
Barca are also distracted by a two-legged Copa del Rey semi-final in the next four weeks. These gruelling contests against Atletico Madrid could result in unwanted injuries or dips in form for key players.
The betting markets have Barca down as red-hot 62.11% favourites for the title. However, there are plenty of potential bumps in the road ahead.
It looks like a two-horse race, again
The betting markets give Atletico and Villarreal just a 0.5% and 0.4% chance of winning the title, respectively. It’s not hard to understand why when you look at the La Liga table. Both teams sit 13 points adrift of Barca.
There are clear signs that Villarreal are struggling to stay the course. They’ve picked up just four points from their last four La Liga games. With a game in-hand on Atletico, a win could leapfrog them back into third place. However, it’s hard to see them eating into the 12-13-point gap behind Real and Barca.
Villarreal have hugely outperformed their xG at home and away. They’ve averaged 2.25 goals per home game versus 1.39 xG. On the road, they’ve averaged 1.6 goals per game versus only 1.08 xG.
Meanwhile, Atletico’s home form (2.58 points per game) is as solid as it gets. Yet, their away form leaves a lot to be desired. Diego Simeone’s men average just 1.27 points per game on the road in 25/26. That’s nowhere near enough to be considered genuine title challengers.