Lyon are also in great form. The French title race could be one of Europe’s most exciting if the defending champions continue to slip up.
| Ligue 1 winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| PSG | 1/9 |
| Lens | 11/2 |
| Lyon | 125/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
PSG
With an implied win probability of over 90%, PSG are still the overwhelming favourites in Ligue 1. This highlights the vast resource gap between the Qatari-backed club and the rest. Their starting eleven and squad depth are clearly superior to that of their rivals.
However, that’s no guarantee of silverware. Other teams have been crowned French champions on two occasions in the past decade. The Parisians have never previously won five titles in a row — something they are bidding to achieve this year.
Having picked up one fewer point than Lens over the opening 22 games, PSG have plenty of work to do. They’ve already suffered three defeats, which is one more than in the whole of last term. Their goals-per-game average has also dropped from 2.71 to 2.23 this season.
A surprise 3-1 defeat away to an out-of-form Rennes side last Friday was the latest slip-up. They’ve also been inconsistent in the Champions League, failing to finish in the top eight. Luis Enrique’s side fell 2-0 down in their play-off against Monaco on Tuesday, before fighting back to win the first leg.
Should they go all the way again in that competition, PSG will play another eight European matches. Those will mostly be high-intensity games that will take priority over domestic matters. That alone suggests there is no value in backing them to win Ligue 1 at their current odds.
Lens
Lens were not expected to be PSG’s main challengers this season. They only finished eighth last term, 32 points behind the side from the French capital. However, summer appointment Pierre Sage has done an incredible job of building a title-chasing team on a small budget.
Les Sang et Or have carried a consistent attacking threat. A front three of Odsonne Edouard, Florian Thauvin and Wesley Said has been responsible for 57% of their goals.
Their total of 42 goals scored is actually slightly below their xG tally of 42.7. That’s the second-best record in the French top flight. It suggests there are no major flaws up top, and they’ve recently signed Allan Saint-Maximin as a fresh option.
Lens also boast the best defensive record in Ligue 1, with only 17 goals conceded. They’ve won 14 of their last 15 matches in all competitions. That kind of form suggests they are not going to suddenly drop out of contention.
There are no European distractions for the current leaders. Perhaps significantly, PSG also still have to travel to the Stade Bollaert-Delelis. With an implied probability of 15.1%, Lens seem to be the value pick to win the title.
Lyon
There could yet be a third serious player in this title race. Lyon are in stunning form too, with 13 straight victories in all competitions.
Their success also marks a remarkable turnaround. Key players Rayan Cherki and Georges Mikautadze were among those sold last summer as the club registered a huge transfer profit. Coach Paulo Fonseca also served a nine-month touchline ban in a tumultuous 2025 for aggressively confronting a referee.
However, Fonseca is now being lauded by Lyon fans for successfully rebuilding this team. He was helped by some smart January business, with Endrick arriving on loan from Real Madrid. Noah Nartey has also made an instant impact with two goals in three Ligue 1 appearances since joining from Brondby.
With an implied win probability of less than 1%, Lyon are given little chance of clinching the title. That’s largely because they are still seven points off the top, with only 12 games to play. The top two would both need to falter for them to have a chance.
Their next two matches are also tough, with trips to Strasbourg and Marseille. Were they to win both, Les Gones would have to be viewed as contenders. That suggests they may be worth an outside bet right now at very long odds.