Sunderland, Wolves, Crystal Palace, and Man Utd are among the clubs set to be most affected by the tournament. It runs until mid-January.
| Premier League outright markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Man United to finish in the bottom half | 5/1 |
| Crystal Palace to finish in the bottom half | 9/4 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Which clubs will lose the most players?
A total of 45 Premier League players are likely to be called up for the Africa Cup of Nations. Morocco will host the 24-team event, which will last four weeks. This period overlaps with one of the busiest times on the English football calendar.
The players jetted off to join their national teams earlier this week, meaning they’ll miss crucial Premier League fixtures over the holidays. Players who are involved in the competition until the semi-final stage will miss six league fixtures, as well as potential domestic cup games.
Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Algeria are the favourites to reach the last four. That could create significant problems for several EPL clubs. Star players such as Mohamed Salah and Bryan Mbeumo are among those who will participate.
Salah has been omitted from the Liverpool starting 11 in recent weeks. The legendary attacker came off the bench and assisted a goal against Brighton last weekend. Salah hinted at a possible January move prior to that game, so it remains to be seen whether or not he will play for the Reds again.
Sunderland, who have performed surprisingly well, are set to lose six players — the most of any club — during AFCON. They were available for the memorable Tyne-Wear Derby win over Newcastle, so this will be their first weekend without those players.
Burnley, Fulham and Sunderland will be without three players. Manchester City, Wolves, West Ham, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest, Everton and Brentford will be without two.
Arsenal, Chelsea and Aston Villa don’t have any players heading to AFCON. This could be an advantage as they compete near the top. Leeds, Newcastle and Bournemouth also don’t have any players heading to the tournament.
| Team | Number of Players at AFCON | Players |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 6 | Habib Diarra, Reinildo Mandava, Bertrand Traore, Arthur Masuaka, Noah Sadiki, Chemsdine Talbi |
| Burnley | 3 | Axel Tuanzebe, Hannibal Mejbri, Lyle Foster |
| Fulham | 3 | Samuel Chukwueze, Alex Iwobi, Calvin Bassey |
| Manchester United | 3 | Amad Diallo, Noussair Mazraoui, Bryan Mbeumo |
| Brentford | 2 | Dango Outtara, Frank Onyeka |
| Everton | 2 | Idrissa Gueye, Iliman Ndiaye |
| Nottingham Forest | 2 | Willy Boly, Ibrahim Sangare |
| Tottenham | 2 | Pape Matar Sarr, Yves Bissouma |
| West Ham | 2 | Aaron Wan-Bissaka, El Hadj Malick Diouf |
| Wolves | 2 | Tawanda Chirewa, Emmanuel Agbadou |
| Manchester City | 2 | Omar Marmoush, Rayan Ait-Nouri |
| Brighton | 1 | Carlos Baleba |
| Crystal Palace | 1 | Ismaila Sarr |
| Liverpool | 1 | Mohamed Salah |
The Premier League betting opportunities created by AFCON
There may be value in betting against several Premier League clubs during the tournament itself. Sunderland’s squad is likely to be stretched, particularly in defence. This could see their form dip over the festive period.
With some players potentially missing 16% of the Premier League season, the tournament could also impact the outright markets. In a tightly packed mid-table, a poor run of form during AFCON could impact final finishing positions.
Manchester United could suffer, with star player Bryan Mbeumo representing Cameroon. The 26-year-old is the club’s top scorer with five EPL goals. The offensive output of Ruben Amorim’s side will drop while he’s away.
Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui will also be at the tournament. The trio will definitely miss tough games against Aston Villa and Newcastle. They’re also at risk of being out for January’s Manchester derby if their nations progress to the last four.
Manchester United already rank among the bottom six teams for xG against. They are only three points above Bournemouth in 14th. If the goals dry up, they could lose many places during AFCON. As an outside bet, they offer value to finish in the bottom half, with an implied probability of 20%.
The same goes for Crystal Palace, who are given a 33.3% chance of a bottom-half finish. They could be without key man Ismaila Sarr for six Premier League games during the tournament. The Senegalese star has already scored eight times for the Eagles in all competitions this term.
With up to three other players potentially absent during AFCON, squad depth concerns will worsen. They also have EFL Cup and Conference League matches to play while their African contingent is away.