AC Milan vs Inter Milan Betting Predictions
Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- First half 1x2 - Draw @ 11/8 with bet365
- 1x2 - AC Milan @ 7/4 with bet365
- First half BTTS - Yes @ 11/5 with bet365
Level at the break
With both teams still featuring a fair number of fringe players, we don’t expect them to be their usual miserly selves. Milan and Inter both conceded just 35 goals in 38 Serie A games last term. However, squad rotation could affect their defensive organisation in the opening stages.
Milan frequently found themselves without a first-half lead last term, failing to be ahead at the break in 74% of their league games. Inter recorded the lowest first-half goal rate in Serie A, with 21% of their games remaining goalless at the break. They were also without a half-time lead in 45% of fixtures. Their respective pre-seasons have started with both teams failing to capture a half-time advantage.
The Nerazzurri were level on terms with both Karlsruhe and Manchester City after 45 minutes in their only two club friendlies. Milan had a difficult start to their pre-season opener, trailing 2-0 at half-time before mounting a second-half comeback. Two of the last four head-to-heads also resulted in a half-time draw, which is what we expect in Perth on Wednesday.
- AC Milan vs Inter Milan Betting Tip 1: First half 1x2 - Draw @ 11/8 with bet365
Milan to extend their run
On paper, anyone would naturally side with Inter to get the better of their city rivals. Yet, recent history suggests this fixture is far from straightforward for the blue half of Milan. They’ve struggled to get over the line against the Rossoneri.
Despite winning the Scudetto last term, AC Milan still managed to secure the league double, winning 1-0 on both occasions. Inter’s last victory against Milan came in April 2024, which means they’ve now gone seven matches without seeing off AC Milan.
Amorim’s men should be encouraged by that, considering they’ve won five of the last seven head-to-heads. With both sides unbeaten in pre-season, it’s anybody’s game. However, on neutral turf, we’d back the Rossoneri to cause an upset, especially with Inter playing without some of their crucial stars.
- AC Milan vs Inter Milan Betting Tip 2: 1x2 - AC Milan @ 7/4 with bet365
Early goals expected
While we expect the first half to end in a stalemate, that doesn’t mean it will be goalless. Inter’s 89 goals in 38 Serie A matches last term clearly demonstrate their ability in the attacking third. Milan were ranked sixth in goals scored with 53, suggesting they weren’t poor in front of goal.
Both teams scored in the first half in 21% of AC Milan’s league matches last season. That percentage is low, but it ranks them third in the division. Inter led the division in this metric, with 24% of their matches seeing both sides find the net before half-time.
With these teams ranking in the top three in that regard, we expect goals at both ends in the opening stages. Overall, Inter and Milan saw both teams score in 47% of their league matches over 90 minutes. Inter also scored or conceded within the opening 15 minutes in 14 of their 38 fixtures, the third-highest total in Serie A behind Como and Sassuolo.
- AC Milan vs Inter Milan Betting Tip 3: First half BTTS - Yes @ 11/5 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Score prediction: AC Milan 3-2 Inter Milan
Goalscorers prediction: AC Milan: Francesco Camarda x2, Ruben Loftus-Cheek - Inter Milan: Francesco Esposito, Andy Diouf
The Derby di Milano takes centre stage this midweek in Australia as two Italian giants lock horns. AC Milan have started a new era under Ruben Amorim after he replaced Massimiliano Allegri as the head coach. The Rossoneri missed out on a Champions League spot last season, which ultimately cost Allegri his position.
Amorim’s men have already started their pre-season campaign, although many of Milan’s regulars have yet to return. Several team members have travelled to Perth, including the likes of Rafael Leao and Luka Modric. However, the coach is unlikely to hand them extended playing time in this fixture.
It’s the same story for Christian Chivu’s Inter Milan, as his first-teamers are gradually returning to the pre-season squad. Inter head into the new campaign aiming to defend their domestic double. Their quest to retain the titles starts here. The Italian champions have had a successful start to their preparations, having already played two friendlies.
They won both, one against Karlsruhe and the other against Manchester City. The outing against City finished 1-1 in regulation time, which the Nerazzurri won on penalties. Inter will be eager to put in a positive performance in this one ahead of this weekend’s meeting with Juventus.
Probable lineups for AC Milan vs Inter Milan
AC Milan expected lineup: Torriani, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Athekame, Ricci, Comotto, Bartesaghi, Loftus-Cheek, Ossola, Camarda
Inter Milan expected lineup: Martinez, Pavard, Bisseck, Bastoni, Diouf, Barella, Stankovic, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco, Esposito, Iddrissou