Arsenal's season is falling apart - they must beat Man Utd to have any hope of winning the Women's Super League

Few periods in Arsenal’s season have summed it up better than the week before the winter break. The Gunners were outstanding when Chelsea visited the Emirates in mid-December, putting the reigning champions to the sword in an emphatic 4-1 victory.

But it was only a week later that they undid all that good work and surrendered the chance to go into the New Year level on points with the Blues at the top of the table, finding themselves on the losing side in a north London derby for the first time in the women’s game. Having had all of the ball and created all of the chances, the Gunners were inexplicably undone on the counter after failing to display the cutting edge that had been on show to the maximum only a week prior.

And that, in short, has been the story of Arsenal’s season. Jonas Eidevall’s side have struggled massively against defensive-minded teams that have come out in low blocks, losing to Liverpool, Spurs and West Ham – the latter also for the first time ever – despite beating Chelsea and, in November, Man City.

Why is that the case? Well, player turnover is at least one factor. A dozen new faces have been brought into the first-team picture over the past 13 months, and it’s clear that the squad is still gelling as a unit because of that. Injuries have played a part, too, with Beth Mead, Vivianne Miedema, Leah Williamson and Laura Wienroither all sidelined for at least nine months because of anterior cruciate ligament injuries suffered last season.

All of this means that rotation has been heightened, especially in comparison to the previous campaign when, in dramatic contrast, injuries meant consistency was inevitable because of the lack of players Eidevall had available.

With Arsenal set to lose goalkeeper Sabrina D’Angelo, forward Cloe Lacasse and full-back Emily Fox this month to the inaugural CONCACAF Women's Gold Cup - D’Angelo and Lacasse competing in it for Canada while Fox represents the United States - the problems that have come with the inconsistency of player availability aren’t going away anytime soon, either.

This hasn’t just prevented the team from gelling, it’s also hindered Eidevall when it comes to tactical fluidity. The Swede enjoys switching between a back-three and a back-four both in-game and in-season, but has lacked the ideal personnel for the former throughout the current campaign.

It adds a sense of predictability to the Gunners’ play at times, especially when they come up against teams that set up in a low block. Changing to a back-three would alter the picture slightly and offer different options and angles, but it’s not something he has gone to much at all.

The last time Eidevall lined his team up in such a set-up was way back in early October, and it’s only been seen in-game once since then, when Arsenal were chasing a winner against second-tier Southampton in a cup game in November.

But the factors in Arsenal’s control cannot be ignored, either. After all, there have been serious problems in the final third this year.

In all three of the Gunners’ WSL defeats, they outplayed their opponents statistically. They had significantly more of the ball, an incredible amount of shots (an eye-watering 31 against Spurs, compared to the opponents’ five) but failed to take advantage and, as a result, fell short.

In this league campaign, only Aston Villa and Everton have worse ‘big chance’ (as quantified by Opta) conversion rates than Arsenal, and the Gunners sit mid-table for shot conversion, too, behind Chelsea, Bristol City, Man City, Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool.

When you look at the quality of the forwards in their team – Alessia Russo, Mead, Miedema, Lacasse, Caitlin Foord, Stina Blackstenius – that’s incredibly underwhelming.

There have been questionable decisions on Eidevall’s part, too. When Arsenal found themselves 2-1 down to West Ham last month, for example, Miedema was brought off as the Swede made sure to manage her minutes so soon after her return from an ACL injury. However, his decision to take Mead off at the same time, a player who was much further ahead in her return to action, left many scratching their heads at a time when the Gunners needed two goals.

Also puzzling is that Eidevall has failed to get more out of Russo, a player who he identified as ideal for how he wants his team to play. "Do we have room for improvement in how we involve her, especially in the penalty area, and how we get her more touches and shooting opportunities in there? Absolutely,” he said in November. Yet, the England star continues to lack the service and support around her to really thrive.

Then there is the limited use of certain players. Frida Maanum was Arsenal’s stand-out player last season, but has only started five league games in the current campaign, while Blackstenius has found herself on the outside looking in despite always providing a serious threat when on the pitch and even looking like a suitable strike partner for Russo when the pair have started together.

But while several factors have combined to make this a (thus far) underwhelming season for Arsenal, there is still a real chance of silverware in the form of the Conti Cup, with the Gunners having qualified for the semi-finals in midweek, and there is also a lot to be excited about when it comes to this team’s future.

Only two players in the squad are over the age of 30, with Eidevall having recruited some really promising young stars in the past year, such as Kathrine Kuhl (20), Kyra Cooney-Cross (21) and Laia Codina (24). When combined with some of the more experienced talents in the team, such as Mead, Williamson and Miedema, there is excitement about what this group could do.

The wins over Chelsea and Man City this season showed glimpses of that. There is clearly the makings of a very good team here, one capable of beating the elite. It just all needs to come together on a more consistent basis.

But, despite him signing a new contract back in October, there is still pressure on Eidevall to ensure the team makes progress between now and the end of the season. The club have done their bit in backing him and believing in him, announcing that new deal just days after their shock Champions League exit, but it needs to be justified.

Improvements have to be made after a damaging couple of months which have seen Arsenal crash out of another competition and fall six points behind WSL leaders Chelsea. Right now, they are in danger of being sucked into a battle for that third and final Champions League spot, with United only four points behind ahead of the pair meeting at the Emirates on Saturday.

It's a game that is absolutely imperative for both. United's chances of finishing in those European places would be all-but-over if they were to lose, with a seven-point gap surely too much to overturn in the final eight games of the season. Arsenal, meanwhile, are not only looking to open up such breathing space, they’re also hoping to bounce back from the disappointment of the defeat to West Ham and FA Cup elimination by keeping their slim WSL title hopes alive. After all, Chelsea and Man City, six and three points ahead of them, respectively, clash on Friday night, meaning at least one of them has to drop points.

The women’s team has had some special moments at the Emirates since becoming a regular fixture on its hallowed turf and they are sure to be backed by a passionate crowd once again this weekend for what is a huge occasion in terms of getting their season, and future, back on track.

More often than not, these big games have brought the best out of Arsenal this campaign. Will that be the case again on Saturday? If so, their season could yet be saved. If not, it would be on the brink of unravelling.