One goal conceded in seven games. Spain's watertight defence faces Messi and Argentina's bid for back-to-back World Cups at the MetLife Stadium.
Best bets for Spain vs Argentina
All odds courtesy of bet365 - correct at time of publishing and subject to change
- Spain to win to nil @ 14/5 with bet365
- Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goal or assist @ 7/5 with bet365
- Draw (1st half) @ 21/20 with bet365
Argentina to draw a blank in the face of Spain’s defensive wall
No defence at this World Cup compares to Spain’s. Only Belgium’s quarter-final consolation effort has prevented the Spaniards from registering seven clean sheets in as many games.
They even managed to restrict the tournament’s most potent attack - France - to just 0.30 xG in their semi-final win. Although Argentina have found the net in every game so far at this tournament, they haven’t faced a defensive structure like this.
If Rodri can cut off Lionel Messi’s supply in the same way he limited Mbappe’s influence, Spain could have a major advantage. At a 28.57% probability, backing La Roja to win with a clean sheet offers excellent value.
- Spain vs Argentina Bet 1: Spain to win to nil @ 14/5 with bet365
Value on Oyarzabal to provide a goal contribution
Mikel Oyarzabal has been Spain’s leading scorer in the tournament. He has scored five goals in seven matches, with one assist to his name. That’s six goal contributions in seven matches at a strike rate of 85.71%.
However, the betting markets believe there is only a 50% chance of him scoring or setting up a goal in the final. This would appear to hugely undervalue Oyarzabal’s role in this Spanish side.
He’s the man for the big occasion, having scored Spain’s winner in the Euro 2024 final. With Nico Williams and Yamal dragging defenders wide, the central spaces will belong to Oyarzabal. This is the best value bet from our trio of Spain vs Argentina predictions.
- Spain vs Argentina Bet 2: Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goal or assist @ 7/5 with bet365
Back the first 45 minutes to be a slow burn
World Cup finals are cagey at the best of times. Six of the last ten finals have featured just two or fewer goals in 90 minutes. Sunday’s final has all the makings of a cagey affair.
Spain’s knockout wins over Portugal and Belgium hinged on 90th and 88th minute winners from Mikel Merino. La Roja’s system is patient by design, as it seeks to suffocate the opposition both physically and technically.
Argentina are counter-punchers by nature too. In their semi-final with England, they tried all they could to slow the pace of the game with minor fouls during the opening 45 minutes. The markets agree the first period should be a tight encounter. We can back a tied first 45 at a probability of just 51.28%.
- Spain vs Argentina Bet 3: Draw (1st half) @ 21/20 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Argentina
- Goalscorers prediction: Spain: Oyarzabal, Yamal
Sunday evening’s World Cup final pits Spain against defending champions Argentina at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. 39-year-old Lionel Messi is chasing back-to-back world titles in what’s certain to be his last World Cup appearance.
Luis de la Fuente’s Spanish side arrive in New York state unbeaten in their last 37 competitive matches. La Roja have shipped just one goal throughout the entire tournament. Their path to the final has been largely serene. They topped their group, shut out Portugal and overcame Belgium before a statement semi-final win over France.
Fitness-wise, the Spaniards are as close to full strength as possible. De la Fuente is still without the services of Yeremy Pino and Victor Munoz, but this is nothing new. Spain have a settled starting XI, anchored by Rodri and sparked by Lamine Yamal. De la Fuente is unlikely to make any changes.
Argentina’s defence of their World Cup crown has been rather more chaotic. Two of their knockout wins have required extra time. They also battled back from two goals down to overcome Egypt in a remarkable last-gasp turnaround. Their semi-final win was equally impressive, battling back from a goal down to overcome Thomas Tuchel’s England in Atlanta.
As it stands, Lionel Scaloni has a fully fit squad available for Sunday’s final. His only dilemmas are selection calls: Giuliano Simeone or the recalled De Paul, while match-winner Lautaro Martínez is also pushing hard.
Probable lineups for Spain vs Argentina
Spain expected lineup: Simon, Cubarsi, Porro, Laporte, Cucurella, Ruiz, Rodri, Pedri, Yamal, Williams, Oyarzabal
Argentina expected lineup: E. Martinez, Molina, Otamendi, Romero, L. Martinez, Simeone, Paredes, Fernandez, Mac Allister, Messi, Alvarez
bet365's Two Goals Ahead Early Payout - Get Paid out early if your team goes two ahead!
bet365 has added a new promotion to its football betting offering, called the 2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer, aimed at giving bettors an extra layer of security on their Full Time Result wagers.
The concept is straightforward: for single bets placed on the standard Full Time Result market, if the team backed to win goes two goals ahead at any point during the match, bet365 will settle the bet as a winner regardless of what happens afterwards, even if the match is later drawn or lost.
The offer applies to pre-match bets only, covering both singles and multiples, as well as Bet Builder wagers. For multiples, the rule works slightly differently, with the relevant leg marked as won once the two-goal cushion is reached, while the rest of the bet continues to run as normal.
This is a useful distinction for accumulator bettors, since it means one leg going comfortably ahead does not necessarily secure the whole bet, but it does remove risk on that individual selection.
There are some notable exclusions worth flagging. Draw bets are not eligible under the terms of the offer, since the promotion is specifically designed around a team building a two-goal lead.
Bets placed on the Full Time Result Enhanced Prices market are also excluded, as are any bets that have been cashed out before the two-goal margin is reached. The market settles on ninety minutes of play, including stoppage time, but extra time and penalty shootouts fall outside its scope.
The offer is open to new and eligible customers, and bet365 states that qualifying payouts will typically be credited within fifteen minutes of the two-goal threshold being reached, which is a reasonably quick turnaround by industry standards.
The promotion covers an extensive list of competitions, spanning the top five European leagues, the English lower divisions and cup competitions, major international tournaments including the World Cup and European Championship, and various continental qualifying competitions, among many others.
It runs across matches played up to the end of 2026, giving it a fairly long shelf life compared with some shorter-term specials.
Overall, this is a fairly generous offer for match-day bettors who want some protection against late collapses or fortunate opposition equalisers, since a two-goal lead is often treated as a strong indicator of the eventual result.
The breadth of qualifying competitions is a clear strength, covering the vast majority of matches punters are likely to bet on. As with all such promotions, the usual caveats apply around eligibility, and bettors should check the full terms before placing a qualifying bet.