Favourable route suggests Les Bleus are a solid World Cup last-four bet

If they can win a tricky group featuring Senegal and Norway, a manageable route to the semi-finals should open up for Les Bleus.

All odds courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

The key players who could fire France into the last four

France won the trophy in 2018 before narrowly missing out on penalties in the final in Qatar. Four years on, Didier Deschamps has arguably an even more talented group of players at his disposal this summer.

Les Bleus’ challenge will again be spearheaded by Kylian Mbappe. The Real Madrid man has a formidable World Cup record, with 12 goals in 14 appearances in the competition. He found the net 42 times in 44 outings for Los Blancos this term.

Despite the criticism that has come his way in Spain, Mbappe can still draw confidence from those numbers. He may enjoy more space when playing for his national team in what is a more balanced attack.

Michael Olise will take his place on the right flank. The 24-year-old brings both creativity and a genuine goal threat from out wide. The Bayern Munich star registered 15 goals and 19 assists in the Bundesliga this season.

Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Rayan Cherki are additional attacking options at Deschamps’ disposal. Those players ensure France are blessed with the kind of offensive depth that is simply unrivalled at the 2026 World Cup. Barring a sudden injury crisis, there will always be players who can come off the bench to change a game.

That will be key, particularly in the knockout stage. However, France are going to need good performances across the team, as their star-studded attack will need support.

For that reason, someone like William Saliba may emerge as being every bit as important as Mbappe or Olise. The Arsenal defender is fresh from an outstanding campaign for his club. Saliba averaged 1.1 tackles, 4.3 clearances and 2.4 aerial challenges won per game in the Premier League.

Analysing Les Bleus’ potential World Cup path

There comes a point in every tournament when the top teams clash and even the very best sides can be eliminated. There is always significant risk when trying to pick an outright winner.

At the 2026 World Cup, the other five favourites along with France are Spain, England, Argentina, Brazil and Portugal. If they win their group, it’s likely Les Bleus won’t have to play any of those sides before the semi-finals.

Should they top Group I, Deschamps’ team would be paired with a third-placed team in the Round of 32. That should guarantee a relatively favourable match-up, with Sweden, Paraguay and Scotland among their potential opponents. With so much attacking quality, that’s a test the two-time winners should pass.

Germany could provide a sterner test in the Round of 16. With Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala having endured challenging campaigns, Die Mannschaft seem to have regressed since Euro 2024. They also lack a truly convincing option up front, so that’s another game France would expect to win.

That would set up a quarter-final against either the winner of Group F or a runner-up from the opening stage. It could also mean a showdown with the Netherlands, who also fall well short compared to France in terms of attacking options.

Overall, there are few major obstacles that are likely to see Les Bleus come unstuck before the last four. It’s at that stage they would likely need to overcome Spain, assuming the European champions also won their group and kept advancing.

That would be a much tougher match-up to call. Therefore, backing France to reach the semi-finals could be the smart bet, with an implied probability of 40%.

That potential for smooth passage into the last four also significantly boosts Mbappe’s chances of winning the Golden Boot. Even defeat in the semi-finals would leave the forward with one more game to add to his tally. He seems to offer value to finish as the tournament’s top scorer for the second World Cup in a row.