With difficult starts to the season on paper, Arsenal and Manchester United may need to win a lot of games later, when their schedule gets easier.
| Premier League Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 5/2 |
| Liverpool | 15/8 |
| Manchester City | 9/4 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Fixture gremlins affect Arsenal and Man Utd
The old footballing cliche says that teams have to play everyone twice throughout a season, which is most certainly true. However, most sides tend to look for an easy start on paper to try and get some momentum that they can carry through the season.
There are many factors that make this hard to predict. Nottingham Forest would have probably been viewed as a favourable fixture at the start of last season, but they went on to finish seventh. Although Opta have suggested that Man Utd and Arsenal have the hardest and second-hardest respective starts, there are variables that affect this.
Opta have used their power rankings to rank each Premier League side’s start based on the difficulty of their opponents. Manchester United have the most difficult start, according to Opta’s model, as their first five games are against Arsenal, Fulham, Burnley, Man City, and Chelsea. It’s clear why United have the most challenging start, as they will face three of the top five sides from last season.
Following their disappointing campaign last season and the uncertainty surrounding what the summer holds, United are unlikely to pick up a lot of points. On the bright side, they will play three of those games at home.
Although Arsenal have been much superior to Man Utd in recent years, they have an easier start according to Opta’s model. The Gunners face Man Utd, Leeds, Liverpool, Forest, and Man City in their opening five games. It’s worth noting that four of those sides finished in the top seven last season. On paper, and based on their performance last season, Arsenal’s fixtures do appear slightly harder. Meanwhile, they will play three home games, as well.
A trip to Anfield certainly hasn’t helped their cause, as that’s ranked as the toughest game according to Opta. With the fixtures confirmed, bettors can also look for value in the early games, and they may find some in the outright market.
Backing Man Utd and Arsenal’s rivals
Before the Premier League season begins, most bets will be about which team wins the title. Bookmakers believe that it will be a three-horse race. When a team gets ahead in the league, it is hard to catch up to them. Last season, we saw that with Liverpool, and in past seasons with Manchester City. Ironically, the only side to be pulled back in recent years has been Arsenal.
As the Gunners’s first five games appear to be difficult, it’s feasible that Liverpool and Man City could seize the initiative in the title race. The trio evenly matched before the start of the tournament. However, Liverpool and City’s odds will shorten if Arsenal have a poor start. It would be a good idea to make that play before the season to get the best value on those two sides.
Those who fancy Arsenal regardless would perhaps be better placed to wait and see how they perform in their first five fixtures. Given their poor form in last season’s title race, they don’t have a great reputation for being able to overtake other teams. A sluggish start in their tricky run of games would place Arsenal at more generous odds. In contrast, they could give some bettors reasons to not bet on them.
The same can be said about Man Utd. However, they’re unlikely to be in the title race, as shown by the terribly long odds. They’ll hope to be in the top-four race without European football, but the fixture computer wouldn’t agree.
While there are three standout candidates in the title race, the top-four race is much more open. Behind the three obvious picks for the top four, five other clubs appear to have a good chance, and Man Utd are one of them.
Given their struggles last season, a smart approach would be to see how United open the campaign. Their price of a top-four finish is unlikely to tumble quickly as they have a challenging start. However, if their start is as tricky as Opta rank it, bettors could get longer odds after five games.
We’d advise a cautious approach at the start of the season. It would be best to sit back and watch how these two sides perform in their opening five games before backing them. Looking at their immediate rivals may be the best way to get outright value before the season starts.