It’s 3rd versus 15th at Villa Park. Villa aim to take advantage of Leeds’ poor away form that’s returned only eight points from 13 games.
Aston Villa vs Leeds United Betting Predictions
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- Aston Villa to win @ 4/5 with bet365
- Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 with bet365
- 2nd Half (Half with most goals) @ 21/20 with bet365
Backing Villa for back-to-back home league wins
Villa’s home record, coupled with Leeds’ indifferent form on the road, makes a Villa victory the obvious choice this weekend. Unai Emery’s men have beaten the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and even Manchester City at Villa Park so far this season. Leeds won’t hold any fears.
Villa have won almost three-quarters (69%) of their home games in 25/26. Yet, the betting markets believe they only have a 55.55% chance of winning on Saturday. This seems like the obvious value play from our trio of Aston Villa vs Leeds United predictions.
Leeds’ gruelling FA Cup 4th Round win at Championship side Birmingham City last weekend hasn’t helped either. Daniel Farke revealed fresh injury concerns for Noah Okafor and Dan James during his post-match media duties.
- Aston Villa vs Leeds United Prediction 1: Aston Villa to win @ 4/5 with bet365
Expect goals at both ends
Both teams have scored in 13 of Leeds United’s last 16 EPL games. Villa have also conceded in four of their last five games at Villa Park, despite winning three of those matches. If both teams get on the scoresheet on Saturday, just one more goal would push the match over the 2.5 goals line.
Villa have scored two or more goals in home wins over Arsenal, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest in recent months. These were relatively open games, which allowed Villa’s counter-attacking style to shine on multiple transitions.
Leeds have conceded 2.08 goals per game on the road in 25/26. If the data stand up, Villa may go on to win this by a 2-1 scoreline.
- Aston Villa vs Leeds United Prediction 2: Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 with bet365
Expect fireworks after the interval
11 of Villa’s 18 home goals scored have arrived after the half-time break. Meanwhile, 16 of Leeds’ 27 goals conceded have also occurred in the second half of matches. Only one goal at either end has arrived in the first 15 minutes of games involving Villa on home soil.
Leeds have only scored in the first half in less than a third (31%) of matches away from Elland Road. Villa’s average timing for the first home goal is the 54th minute. Meanwhile, United’s average first away goal tends to come in the 50th minute.
The betting markets suggest there is less than a coinflip chance of the second half featuring more goals than the first. We’re happy to take this on, with Villa likely to wear Leeds down after an attritional opening 45 minutes.
- Aston Villa vs Leeds United Prediction 3: 2nd Half (Half with most goals) @ 21/20 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Leeds United
- Goalscorers prediction: Aston Villa: Watkins, Buendia – Leeds United: N/A
Aston Villa return to Villa Park this weekend. They host a Leeds United side still trying to keep the relegation zone at arm’s length.
Unai Emery’s Villa have lost just six of their 26 EPL games so far this season. Although Villa have overperformed their xG and xGA throughout the campaign, they remain in third place, three points behind Man City. Villa have averaged 2.15 points per home game this season. They’ve conceded just 0.77 goals per home game.
The Villans are unbeaten in their last seven meetings with Leeds in all competitions. Emery wants his side to get back to winning ways at home after their FA Cup loss to Newcastle last week.
Leeds have averaged 1.15 points per game so far this season. Their home form is keeping them six points above the relegation area. The Whites’ away form has left a lot to be desired, with an average of just 0.62 points per away game.
Daniel Farke’s men have struggled defensively on the road. They’ve kept a clean sheet in just 8% of their away matches. However, they’ve got on the scoresheet regularly, with both teams scoring in 62% of their games away from Elland Road.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Leeds United
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Cash, Digne, Mings, Konsa, Luiz, Onana, Buendia, Sancho, Rogers, Watkins
Leeds United expected lineup: Perri, Justin, Rodon, Bijol, Ampadu, Gruev, Bogle, Gudmundsson, Okafor, Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin