There are two top-five showdowns on Sunday, with those matches set to significantly influence the Scudetto race behind current leaders Inter.
| Serie A markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| AC Milan to beat Roma | 2/1 |
| Juventus vs Napoli - Draw | 21/10 |
| Parma to win or draw vs Atalanta | 7/4 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Home advantage of little value in Serie A
Over the past two years in Italy, there has been a clear trend of away teams defying expectations. During both the 2022/23 and 2023/24 Serie A seasons, home sides won around 42% of their fixtures. However, that figure decreased to 39.7% last season, before falling even further this term.
Earlier this month, Matchday 19 didn’t feature a single home victory. That was only the fourth time in 31 years that an entire gameweek passed without anyone winning in their own stadium.
That pattern of away success has not been replicated in the other major European countries. Home win ratios stand at 45% or higher in all of the other big-five leagues this season. In Ligue 1, more than half of all matches saw the hosts secure victories.
It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons why Serie A has been so different. However, it has shifted back towards its historical roots as a more defensive league in recent times.
Just 2.32 goals have been scored per 90 minutes on average in the Italian top flight this term. With defences frequently on top, away teams are having more luck grinding out draws and narrow wins on the road.
10 teams have picked up at least as many away points as they’ve managed at home in Serie A 2025/26. Bologna, Cremonese, Sassuolo, Torino, Parma, and Verona have performed better away from home.
Will the away teams succeed in crunch double-header?
Matchday 21 produced little home success as well. The teams playing in front of their own fans averaged just 0.5 goals. Not one home team netted more than once.
That creates an intriguing betting angle heading into a crucial weekend in Serie A. Napoli and Milan will be eager to continue the trend, as they travel to play Juventus and Roma, respectively.
Milan are currently second to city rivals Inter in the standings, and in the outright betting market. They’ve lost just one of their 21 league matches this term, and that solitary defeat came at home.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side are worth backing to beat a Roma outfit that have a poor record in the big games. I Giallorossi have lost all four matches against teams that are currently in the top five. Meanwhile, Milan have taken 10 points from their four outings against top-five opponents.
The meeting between Juventus and Napoli on Sunday could also be a defining match for both clubs. The high-flying duo have bucked the overall trend, as they’ve collected five more points at home than away.
However, the defending champions have a chance of leaving Turin with a point. Napoli have drawn three of their last four league matches. They’ve only lost once this season against sides that currently occupy the top seven places.
Four home draws have also halted Juve’s push to get into serious Scudetto contention. They do remain unbeaten at home across all competitions, though. That suggests the draw is the value bet, with an implied probability of 32.3%.
Elsewhere this weekend, Parma seem to be worth backing to avoid defeat away to an Atalanta side with European distractions. The visitors have only lost one of their last six league games, and that was against leaders Inter. They’re unbeaten in five on the road in Serie A.