Wins for West Ham and Leeds have added to Spurs’ woes over the past week. The North London side are now in the bottom three and in deep trouble.
| Premier League relegation | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tottenham | 10/11 |
| West Ham | 13/8 |
| Nottingham Forest | 5/1 |
| Leeds | 14/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Tottenham
The international break brought the almost inevitable sacking of Igor Tudor at Tottenham. The Croatian collected just one point from his five league games in charge. While Roberto De Zerbi arrived with plenty of Premier League pedigree, there were doubts over whether he could make an immediate impact.
His first match did not go to plan. Spurs created just one big chance and 0.83 xG in a 1-0 defeat to Sunderland. That result saw them slip into the relegation zone, two points behind West Ham.
In a further blow, captain Cristian Romero suffered a season-ending knee injury. Key man Mohammed Kudus has also been hit by a relapse on his road back to fitness. That leaves Spurs without a host of important players heading into the final month of the campaign.
The formbook suggests they are heading in only one direction, and that’s the Championship. They remain winless in 14 Premier League matches in 2026. Tottenham averaged just 0.36 points and 0.93 goals per game across that period.
The North London club also have the worst home record in the Premier League, with just two victories and 10 points. They’ve had more managers than wins in front of their own fans this season. Spurs are strong candidates for relegation, with an implied probability of 50%.
West Ham
Returning from the international break and an FA Cup shootout defeat to Leeds, West Ham faced a crunch fixture against Wolves. The Premier League’s bottom club had picked up seven points from their previous three games. It was therefore far from certain that Nuno’s team would collect all the points.
However, they rose to the occasion and delivered a 4-0 victory when the pressure was firmly on. Braces from Konstantinos Mavropanos and Taty Castellanos lifted the Hammers out of the relegation zone. That result, coupled with Spurs’ defeat, was a massive boost to their survival prospects.
For the first time in months, West Ham are no longer one of the three favourites for the drop. Aided by some solid business in January, Nuno has built a competitive side at this level.
The Hammers have earned 18 points in 2026. That’s 13 more than Tottenham and three more than Nottingham Forest. They’ve averaged a very respectable 1.36 goals per 90 minutes in the league since the turn of the year.
Their run-in isn’t easy, but they’ll fancy their chances at home to Leeds on the final weekend. If they can pick up another victory somewhere, that alone could be enough to stay above a badly out-of-form Spurs. Their positive momentum suggests they’ll stay afloat.
Nottingham Forest
Ominously for Tottenham, Forest are also picking up enough results to suggest they will survive relegation. A 3-0 victory in their crunch clash against Spurs before the international break was quite significant. They’re now unbeaten in four Premier League outings, following a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa on Sunday.
Vitor Pereira has done a solid job since taking charge in February. He has also been boosted by Chris Wood’s return to fitness. The New Zealand international, who scored 20 Premier League goals last term, could play a key role in the run-in.
Forest now have a three-point advantage on Spurs. They host a Burnley side that have lost 69% of their Premier League away games. That’s by far their most winnable remaining fixture, making it a crucial game for the East Midlands side.
There is also the distraction of a promising Europa League campaign. Forest head into the second leg of their quarter-final at the City Ground level at 1-1 with Porto.
However, Pereira has consistently rested players in Europe, with Premier League survival clearly the priority. That suggests Europa League football will have little impact on their prospects of staying up. Forest should beat the drop from this position.
Leeds
Leeds are another side who could potentially become the third team to go down alongside Burnley and Wolves. With 36 points, they cannot consider themselves safe just yet. However, an excellent 2-1 victory away to Man Utd on Monday pushed them towards survival.
Daniel Farke’s team are stronger than their relegation rivals according to a number of underlying metrics. Their xPTS (expected points) tally of 46.6 sees them rank 11th in the Premier League. That compares to West Ham on 37.1, Forest on 36.1 and Spurs on 34.5 xPTS.
Their run-in is also the most favourable of the clubs in danger. Their next two home games are against the bottom two teams, who are effectively playing for pride. Late-season trips to Spurs and West Ham will also offer opportunities to pick up points should they remain in danger.
Given that, Leeds are almost certain to be in the Premier League again next season. Even at long odds, they do not appear to represent value in the relegation market.