Will the recent spying scandal distract Southampton? Will Middlesbrough be given a reprieve?
| Championship Playoff Final Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 8/13 |
| Hull or draw (Double chance) | 9/10 |
| Hull to be promoted | 2/1 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why uncertainty surrounds the future of Southampton
If Southampton are in the Championship playoff final, they will be overwhelming favourites with the bookies to win and bounce back to the Premier League.
Tonda Eckert’s side finished the regular season 19 games unbeaten. In fact, they’ve won 19 of their last 25 matches in all competitions. The Saints have performed impressively since Eckert replaced Will Still as their manager.
However, their positive momentum ends there at least for the time being. The biggest story surrounding Southampton right now is the ‘Spygate 2.0’ scandal. A member of the Saints’ scouting department was caught spying on Middlesbrough’s training session.
This has sparked outrage in the football community. The EFL has confirmed that an independent commission will rule on ,whether the Saints should be expelled from the playoffs by Tuesday, 19 May. Spying on opposing teams is strictly prohibited following a previous incident between Leeds United and Derby County.
If they are found guilty, Southampton could receive the maximum punishment and miss their opportunity to return to the top flight.
If the independent commission issues only a warning or a hefty fine, it is not guaranteed that the Saints will defeat fellow finalists Hull.
Southampton have won only two of their meetings with the other five teams in the Championship top six this season. Away from St Mary’s, the Saints have only managed clean sheets in 8% of their games this season.
Crucially, they lost to Hull at home and away, which certainly gives the Tigers a psychological advantage ahead of the final.
Southampton struggle against sides that are happy to sit in their shape and defend resolutely out of possession. In that respect, Hull are exactly the type of opponent that Eckert’s players dislike facing. That’s why there is value in backing Hull or the draw in the double chance market over 90 minutes.
Given that Double Chance bets settle after 90 minutes, the logical follow-up bet is to back Hull to be promoted in any way. This covers you in the event that the Tigers win after extra time or a penalty shootout.
We can currently back the Tigers to prevail in any way at a probability as short as 33%, which currently seems incredibly low.
The case for Hull: Outperforming the statistical data
The underlying stats for Hull City indicate that they should have struggled with relegation rather than competing for promotion. Their expected points (xPTS) tally was just 53 points, which would’ve left them narrowly above the drop zone.
Despite having bounced in and around the playoffs for several months, Hull only secured sixth place during the final day of the season.
It appeared that third-placed Millwall would easily defeat the Tigers, but the Lions lost their momentum during the second match. Hull’s counter-punching style, with rapid, clinical transitions, proved Millwall’s undoing.
In fact, their tactical approach is perfectly suited for an opponent like Southampton, who prefer to dominate possession and pass through the lines.
Hull’s record against the rest of the Championship’s top six is also superior, with 14 points from their ten match-ups. Their defensive record away from home is better than Southampton's, as they have recorded seven clean sheets across 24 away fixtures.
Hull will aim to frustrate and contain the Saints in the first 30 minutes. In fact, the Tigers’ plan could be to stay in the game until the final 25 minutes and aim to take advantage of an exhausted Southampton side.
That’s why under 2.5 goals is appealing, even at this short price. In fact, ten of the last 13 Championship playoff finals have featured two or fewer goals. We can back the same outcome here at a probability of just 62.11%.
The team that arguably deserves promotion the most is currently absent
The uncomfortable subtext to all of this is that the side with the strongest claim to the third promotion spot is sitting at home. Middlesbrough led the Championship for the most days spent in the top two positions with 217. That total is higher than even the champions Coventry (215).
Boro also remained in contention for automatic promotion on the final day of the season. However, a draw against Wrexham, combined with Ipswich's victory over QPR, ended those remaining ambitions.
Against Southampton, they were eliminated by a highly unusual extra-time goal. That tie was overshadowed by an alleged spying operation on their own training ground, against a club with financial advantages and a first-division wage budget.
Boro boss Kim Hellberg insisted post-match that the tactical side of the game is "where we can beat the opponent" against wealthier clubs, and that he had worked for 15 years for a shot at the Premier League. This emotional press conference made a bigger impact than any xG chart.
It’s difficult to argue that the two clubs currently set to play at Wembley have cleaner cases for promotion than the one that isn’t.