With Atleti refusing to budge and sell their star striker, is the Argentine capable of making them domestic and continental contenders in 2026/27?
| 2026/27 Atletico Madrid outright betting markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to win La Liga | 20/1 |
| Atletico Madrid to win La Liga without Barca and Real | 8/11 |
| Atletico Madrid top 4 finish | 3/10 |
| Atletico Madrid to win Champions League | 2/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The saga is over, at least until January
Álvarez informed Atlético’s sporting director Mateu Alemany that he would not leave this summer. Atlético had made their position clear throughout. They would not negotiate with Barcelona, his stated preferred destination.
Arsenal were the serious alternative and pushed late. Those advances failed to convince the player. Chief executive Miguel Ángel Gil Marín framed the outcome simply. Competing with the elite requires elite players - and he counts Álvarez among them.
The disruption was real. Álvarez missed training sessions on Wednesday and Thursday, then worked individually on Friday. He also sat out the 3-1 win at Sevilla. He has since rejoined the group at Cerro del Espino.
Atlético did not just hold on to him. Cristian Romero arrived from Tottenham for around €40m to lead the defence. Álex Grimaldo, Morten Hjulmand and Lee Kang-in also joined for significant fees. Jonathan David then came in on loan from Juventus on deadline day.
That is well over €130m of investment in a squad that lost Antoine Griezmann. Simeone now has depth in every area of his squad for a demanding autumn.
The numbers behind the Álvarez case
His league output last season explains why Atlético were so determined to keep him. Álvarez produced eight goals and four assists in 1,902 La Liga minutes. He averaged 0.90 shots on target per game and posted 7.70 expected goals. Only Alexander Sørloth scored more for Atlético in the league.
He also complemented those around him well, creating 10 big chances and averaging 1.6 key passes per game. His European record was even stronger, having scored 10 Champions League goals at a scoring frequency of one goal every 124 minutes.
This is not a one-man attack. Atlético scored 62 league goals from 60.10 expected goals in 2025/26. The platform was already strong before Álvarez became a transfer story.
Their European run underlines it. Atlético finished only 14th in the league phase last season. They then beat Club Brugge, Tottenham and Barcelona before losing to Arsenal in the semi-finals. They also reached the last four of the Copa del Rey.
Their early season form in 2026/27 fits the same pattern. A 2-2 draw with Villarreal was followed by a 2-0 win over Málaga and that victory in Seville. Seven goals scored and three conceded leave them unbeaten and two points behind both Barcelona and Real Madrid.
One caveat still applies. His match sharpness, playing time and starting role will depend on how quickly he returns to competitive action.
How to back Atletico more safely
The cleanest angle is the La Liga winner without Barcelona and Real Madrid market. It implies roughly a 56% chance that Atlético will finish above every other Spanish club. That looks fair rather than generous, but the continuity in their squad strengthens the case.
History supports the position. Last season's fourth place behind Villarreal was only their second finish outside the top three since 2012/13. They do not need to overhaul the big two for this bet to land.
The outright title is a different proposition. A 5% implied chance reflects a genuine gap to Barcelona and Real Madrid. Retaining one forward does not close it.
Champions League placement is the next-best angle. A top-eight league phase finish implies about a 33% chance. The draw is demanding, with Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Manchester United among eight opponents. However, the remaining five fixtures are very winnable, with PSV, Fenerbahçe, Bodø/Glimt, Viking and Stuttgart to come.
Around 16 points is usually the marker for automatic qualification to the last 16. Atlético managed only 13 last season and still reached the semi-finals. The league phase begins on 8 September, and Atlético travel to Anfield first. Liverpool are a team in transition, which is very different to Atleti’s more settled squad.
Álvarez goalscorer markets sit a step below that. His European record justifies interest at roughly a 4% chance of finishing as the top scorer. The problem is timing rather than talent.
He may be eased back in, and Jonathan David has also arrived to share the load. That makes player markets harder to price with confidence right now.
Singles are the preferred approach. The La Liga placement position carries the strongest continuity bet. Any league and Europe combination only makes sense if the prices properly compensate for the short-term uncertainty over Álvarez’s conditioning.