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Our betting expert expects a tight game between two of last season’s top five, with the referee producing cards for both sides.
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All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Defences to dominate on Tyneside
Heading into the sixth round of fixtures in the Premier League, Newcastle and Arsenal have conceded a combined total of just five goals. Both rank among the top four defences in the division.
The Gunners have only let in two goals in seven competitive outings so far this term. Having only conceded 0.89 per game in the Premier League last season, they’re even better at the back. Mikel Arteta has a number of strong defensive options, including new signing Cristhian Mosquera, who has impressed when called upon.
Meanwhile, with Newcastle short on options in the attacking department, Eddie Howe has needed to be pragmatic. He’s focused on keeping things tight, and the Magpies have kept clean sheets in four of their five Premier League fixtures.
These clubs also rank as the best two teams in the division for xGA (expected goals allowed). Newcastle have only allowed their opponents to create 2.5 xG so far, with the Gunners giving up 3.3.
- Newcastle vs Arsenal Bet Builder Tip 1: Both Teams to Score - No at odds of 19/20 on bet365
Tempers could flare
This match should be a competitive affair. Both sides don’t shy away from physical play in a bid to knock opposing teams off their stride.
Newcastle will likely see being aggressive as their best path to getting a result from this game. They’ve committed 12.6 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this term, with only Fulham, Wolves, Brighton, and Brentford fouling more frequently. They are the only team in the division averaging more fouls than successful tackles (12.2).
Despite enjoying plenty of possession, Arsenal also rank eighth on 11.2 fouls per game. They’ve at least managed to keep their full quota of players on the pitch, having received a league-high six red cards last term.
You can back both teams to receive two or more cards, with an implied probability of 54.5%.
- Newcastle vs Arsenal Bet Builder Tip 2: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards at odds of 5/6 on bet365
Throw In count to rise
Newcastle have played in a slightly more direct fashion this term, and that trend may continue with 1.98m Nick Woltemade up front. They have only the 15th-highest pass completion rate in the Premier League at 80.0%.
This approach can lead to the ball going out of play more frequently. So far, they’ve taken 22.2 throw-ins per game in the Premier League. That’s second only to Wolves (23.6). Howe’s side have also used long throws as a tactic at times, and that’s something they may want to repeat here.
Arsenal average 18.2 throw-ins taken per 90 minutes. If both teams replicate or even dip just below their season averages, we should see at least 35 throw-ins in this match, at an implied probability of 57.9%.
- Newcastle vs Arsenal Bet Builder Tip 3: Total Throw Ins 2-Way - Over 34.5 Throw Ins at odds of 8/11 on bet365