Norway, Bosnia and North Macedonia could reach next summer’s finals by topping their groups, leaving some big nations scrambling in the playoffs.
| 2026 World Cup Qualifying Group Winner Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Slovakia (Group A) | 5/2 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina (Group H) | 4/1 |
| Norway (Group I) | 2/5 |
| North Macedonia (Group J) | 8/1 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Assessing the surprise packages in Europe’s 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign
With most 2026 World Cup qualifying groups now at the halfway point of their campaigns, it’s surprising to see some of the smaller nations sitting at the top of their respective groups.
Group A only kicked off its campaign during this international break. It was a hugely encouraging start for Slovakia. They stunned Germany 2-0 in Bratislava, before a last-minute winner in Luxembourg maintained their 100% win record.
Slovakia’s next three qualifying games involve a double-header with Northern Ireland and the return home game against Luxembourg. If they can win all three matches, they will be in the driving seat to win the group ahead of their final qualifier against the Germans in November.
In Group H, Austria seemed to have a fantastic chance at topping a World Cup qualifying group at the start of their campaign. They’ve got off to a strong start, winning all four of their opening qualifying games, including a hard-fought away win in Bosnia. Bosnia-Herzegovina still top the group on the same points as the Austrians, but the former have played one game more.
There’s still hope for Bosnia to finish top of Group H, however. They face Cyprus, Malta and a weakened Romania before their final game with Austria in November.
Despite being drawn in the same group as Italy, the Norwegians hold a strong position at the top. Erling Haaland and co. have won their first four qualifying games, scoring 13 and conceding only twice.
They humbled the Italians 3-0 on home soil in their third qualifier of the campaign. On Tuesday night, Norway thrashed Moldova 11-1 in fine style and moved six points clear of Italy. Providing they beat Israel and Estonia, they will go into their final group game in Italy at least three points clear of Gennaro Gattuso’s side.
Although it may still seem like a long shot, North Macedonia currently top Group J, having racked up 11 points from their first five qualifying games. They remain unbeaten, having conceded only twice in five fixtures.
The North Macedonians drew at home with Group J favourites Belgium in June, but they have to travel to Ghent in October. If they can pull off a famous win against the Belgians, Blagoja Milevski’s in-form side can start to dream about playing in their first World Cup finals.
Mouth-watering playoff matches as big clubs face off
The 2026 World Cup qualifying playoff could be a seriously competitive affair. It will feature the 12 group runners-up and the four best Nations League group winners that finished outside the top two of their World Cup qualifying groups.
Any big nation failing to top their group could face a tricky path.
Germany and Italy currently appear to be the most vulnerable high-ranked nations to fall into the playoffs. Germany’s defeat to Slovakia leaves them very little room for error between now and November. Meanwhile, Italy’s thumping loss in Norway heaps the pressure on their four remaining qualifying games.
In Group L, one of Croatia or Czechia will also fall into the playoffs. Both sides are on 12 points, although the Croatians have played one game fewer than their rivals.
Looking at next summer’s finals as a whole, Spain remain the clear favourites to lift the Jules Rimet trophy in America. The betting markets believe La Roja have a 16.67% chance of becoming world champions for a second time in 2026.
It’s easy to see why when you consider they sit top of their group with two wins, nine goals scored and none conceded. They thrashed Turkey 6-0 in their own backyard too.
Spain also reached the Nations League final in June, so Luis de la Fuente’s side are capable of going deep in major tournaments. They also boast one of the world’s most promising prospects in Lamine Yamal.