Revealed: How woeful Chelsea can STILL qualify for Champions League - but it needs a massive favour from Aston Villa

Chelsea suffered a 3-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest on Monday night that left them ninth in the Premier League table. With only three games of the season remaining, the Blues sit ten points behind the top five and can no longer qualify through the traditional league positions. However, a complicated route to Europe’s top competition still exists. Chelsea must finish sixth and rely on a specific set of results elsewhere in Europe.

Under UEFA’s European Performance Spots system, leagues with the strongest collective performances can receive an extra Champions League place. This means that England’s sixth-placed side could qualify if the winner of the Europa League also finishes inside the Premier League’s top five.

Chelsea’s hopes effectively rest on Unai Emery and Aston Villa. The Midlands club are still chasing Europa League glory while sitting comfortably inside the Premier League’s top five. If Villa win the competition and also secure a top-five domestic finish, their Champions League qualification via the Europa League would pass the additional European Performance Spot down the league table. That would allow the team finishing sixth to enter the Champions League.

But Villa still face work to reach the final. They must first overturn a 1–0 aggregate deficit against Nottingham Forest in their semi-final second leg before potentially meeting either Freiburg or Braga in the final.

Interim manager Calum McFarlane has played down the mathematical permutations and insists his squad remain focused on finishing the season strongly. The caretaker boss also stressed that his immediate focus remains on improving performances rather than calculating potential scenarios.

"Yeah, I know the group," he said, as quoted by Football London. "I've known them for a little while now and they are driven. They want what's best for themselves, they want what's best for this club and we're going to do everything we can to try and win every single game we can from now to the end of the season.

"All we can focus on right now and all I can focus on right now is we're in tomorrow, we're training tomorrow, we'll review the game. We'll try and find the reason why and try and make sure that the performance level is of a higher level against Liverpool in five days' time. I'm not looking at the bigger picture, the why, it's about right now and attacking the moment right now."

Even if Villa deliver in Europe, Chelsea must first climb the table themselves. The Blues are four points behind sixth-placed Bournemouth, with Brentford and Brighton also ahead of them. The race is extremely tight. Everton, Fulham and Sunderland remain within striking distance, leaving Chelsea with virtually no margin for error in the final weeks of the campaign. Only by overtaking several rivals - and receiving help from Aston Villa in Europe - can the Blues keep their unlikely Champions League dream alive.

Chelsea will face Liverpool, Tottenham and Sunderland in their final three Premier League games, while they also have an FA Cup final date against Manchester City pencilled in for May 16.