Relegation odds slashed! Why Man City expulsion from the Premier League is ‘realistic outcome’ & not ‘just hyperbole’ as 115-charge FFP case rumbles on

The champions of England, who have rewritten the history books by claiming four successive domestic crowns, continue to maintain their innocence in a protracted case that remains some way from reaching a conclusion. A hearing will take place at some stage, with various punishments being mooted for a club that has allegedly breached Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules.

A top sports lawyer has told The Athletic of what could happen from here, with rule W.51 of the Premier League handbook admitting that clubs can be removed from the top-flight: “You would have to think that the penalty would be absolutely huge. Expulsion from the Premier League wouldn’t be just hyperbole. It would be a realistic outcome if they were found guilty of the charges. If, on the other hand, some of the charges like those involving Mancini aren’t as clear-cut as people think and we’re talking about multiple PSR breaches, you might be looking at a 30-point deduction. There are probably four outcomes; they’re acquitted, there’s a huge fine and small points deduction, there’s a huge points deduction or they’re kicked out of the league. But we just don’t know without seeing the in-depth evidence. And just because someone has been charged 115 times, it doesn’t mean they’re guilty.”

There has been talk of a “settlement” being reached that could see City clear the FFP cloud hanging over their head, but such an outcome would not go down well with rival outfits. One sports lawyer said of that speculation: “Six months ago, I thought this could lead to some sort of settlement but, with a hearing listed, it becomes hard to see how the Premier League could come out with a straight face and say they’ve agreed a settlement with Manchester City. Coming out to say they’ve reached a confidential agreement and that’s the end of the matter, I’m not sure many would just accept that. The inevitable conclusions drawn would be that Manchester City bought their way out of the case.”

The uncertainty surrounding City is being recognised in Premier League betting markets, with City – despite their standing at the very top of the English game – a surprisingly short price to tumble out of the top tier in 2024-25 despite also being among the favourites to collect another title.