Man City's rebuild is already off the rails - and Pep Guardiola has one week to save their Premier League title hopes

If things looked bad for Guardiola just before the international break with the late collapse at Brighton, then the situation is even more concerning now. Omar Marmoush suffered a knee injury while on duty for Egypt and will join Rayan Cherki and Rayan Ait-Nouri in missing the derby as well as the next few games. John Stones is also a doubt. 

City’s problems go way beyond injuries, however. The biggest worry is they do not look any stronger than the team that endured their worst campaign under Guardiola last season and bowed out of the title race in early December. Against Tottenham they couldn’t defend a high ball and flick-on and were then caught out by an aggressive high-press from a goal kick, with striking similarities with the 4-0 thrashing Spurs meted out to them last season. 

Against Brighton they surrendered the lead to lose 2-1, just as in the previous season’s fixture. The goals they conceded felt familiar, too, Matheus Nunes unnecessarily conceding a penalty and then the team being caught out by a quick break.

Former City defender Micah Richards summed up the team’s problems when he said on CBS: "I had felt that the things they were missing last season had been fixed. But against Spurs, they got caught out. Against Brighton, it was too easy. I thought they’d fixed it, but they haven’t yet. It might take more time. Something is missing."

Former City left-back Gael Clichy stressed that it’s only the start of the season but expressed concern that the team are not getting better at defending counter attacks. He told GOAL, via BETMGM: “City tend to always have the same struggle. 

"When you protect the ball and when you dominate your opponent, you know the only way they can hurt you is on the transition and not being able to solve those situations, which we see pretty much every game, is a concern. And even more so this year with the high line they want to maintain with the lack of pressing they're not doing together this leaves the defenders very exposed on those situations."

City have not just made their worst start to a season under Guardiola. They haven't taken as few as three points from their first three games since 2004-05, when Kevin Keegan was manager. The coach has made bad starts before, of course, only for his team to respond in ruthless fashion. 

In his incredible first campaign with Barcelona, his side lost their opening game to newly-promoted Numancia then drew at home to Racing Santander. The Catalan press had their knives out for the novice coach but Andres Iniesta gave him his support in a private meeting and Barca went on to win their next nine games before storming to the treble. His City dropped points in five of their first nine games in the 2020-21 campaign and then won 13 games in a row from December. 

Those precedents show the pitfalls of writing Guardiola off early, as Sergio Aguero told GOAL, via Stake.com: "I'm still amazed that he's getting fresh criticism after a not-so-stellar season, and a rocky start to this one. For years on end, Pep has led the team to win many titles, and when we couldn't, we were consistently one of the key challengers. He has built an enormous legacy, something everyone should value. That's why I trust him to correct course and show us the path to return to form."

But things feel different this time. City are in the middle of a strange evolution. They have parted with nearly half of the core of the key players who won the treble with them in 2023 following the deadline day departures of Ilkay Gundogan, Manuel Akanji and Ederson, not long after Jack Grealish left on loan for Everton and Kevin De Bruyne ended his trophy-laden 10-year stay at the club. 

City spent £180 million ($244m) on six new signings in the summer, having splashed out the same amount in January. The new recruits in both windows, however, have not significantly strengthened the squad. Three of City’s seven new arrivals are goalkeepers, while Sverre Nypan has gone straight out on loan to Middlesbrough. 

The only signing to have a big impact so far in the Premier League season is Tijjani Reijnders, who had a stunningly impressive debut against Wolves. Ait-Nouri got injured during the first half against Tottenham and although he returned against Brighton, he has another injury and is unavailable against United. 

Cherki, meanwhile, got also suffered an issue in the Spurs clash and will not be back until mid-October. Of the five new signings in January, only Marmoush has truly shone. And he is now set for a spell on the sidelines. Vitor Reis barely played last season and has been sent out on loan while Abdukodir Khusanov has made a mixed start to life in the Premier League.

City have undergone their biggest change of personnel since Guardiola’s first season in charge and the coach warned on Friday that new teams do not gel overnight.

"At any club there is always changes and when you change 10 players in four five months everything needs to be settled, fixed and consistent," he said. "We are still doing many [good] things but we still need to be more consistent than we have been, but step by step we will do it."

The most interesting transfer City have completed is replacing the outgoing Ederson with Gianluigi Donnarumma - a vastly different profile to the Brazilian. The Italian has no outstanding ability with his feet and he does not feel like a Guardiola signing. There is an obvious counterpoint, though: that Donnarumma is a generational goalkeeping talent who made his debut for AC Milan at the age of 16 and became a full Italy international at 17.

There is an obvious comparison with Guardiola’s embrace of Erling Haaland, who is the most lethal centre-forward in the world albeit one who contributes very little to City’s all-round play. Asked what the Italian brings his side, Guardiola’s response was simple but not exactly flattering: "He is so tall."

It feels like the coach is veering from his usual script in his 10th season at the Etihad Stadium and that he is close to the end of his time there. He would not be drawn on when that day will come although he insisted he was as motivated as ever. "I will not stay if the club feels it needs change. But right now I want to do it more than ever after what happened last season,” he said. "I am not saying that just because of what I have done in the past. I like to look forward.”

Looking forward means plotting a path to beating United at home and Arsenal away, two fixtures City lost last season. Pull off consecutive victories and then Guardiola's rebuild will begin to make sense. A repeat of both results, though, will go a long way towards ensuring his 10th campaign in England ends without a league title.