Our betting expert shares his predictions for the USA vs Mexico match. The USA seem to have found their stride under Pochettino. A win is expected.
USA vs Mexico Betting Predictions
All odds courtesy of talkSPORT BET - correct at time of publishing and subject to change
- First team to score - USA @ 10/11 with talkSPORT BET
- Totals - Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 with talkSPORT BET
- 1x2 - USA @ 7/5 with talkSPORT BET
Backing USA’s trend to score early
Both friendly matches in this window have seen the USMNT take it to their opponents early. Sebastian Berhalter scored the first goal against Chile last time out in the 37th minute of the game. Before that, Justin Ellis needed just four minutes to breach the Peruvian defence and put the USA ahead.
These two first-half goals aren’t anomalies. The USA have developed a trend of starting quickly, especially in front of their home fans. The hosts scored the first goal in four of their recent five outings, three of which were at the World Cup.
Despite conceding first against Belgium, Pochettino’s troops still scored in the first half. Mexico, meanwhile, have conceded first in both friendly matches they’ve played in this window. Interestingly, even in that Gold Cup final last year, the USA opened the scoring after four minutes of gameplay, which is a likely scenario this weekend.
- USA vs Mexico Betting Tip 1: First team to score - USA @ 10/11 with talkSPORT BET
Both sides are used to scoring goals
We expect the hosts to get on the scoreboard early in the game, leaving plenty of time for both sides to add to the tally. The USA scored eight goals in their last two games, 4-2 against Chile, and 4-1 versus Peru. Moreover, they’ve been involved in high-scoring matches since the start of the World Cup. Notably, 30 goals have been scored in the USA’s matches since their opening game at the tournament against Paraguay.
That’s an average of 3.75 goals per game, but the hosts will be eager to ensure they’re on the right side of those goals. The Stars and Stripes have scored 14 goals in their recent five outings, averaging 2.8 goals per 90. In contrast, Mexico haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last three matches, which means they’re likely to concede in Arizona.
The visitors have scored and conceded exactly one goal in both of their friendly matches in this window. The home side allowed three goals across two games they played in this friendly window. Also, each of the USA’s last three matches produced more than two goals, which is what we’re backing this Sunday morning.
- USA vs Mexico Betting Tip 2: Totals - Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 with talkSPORT BET
USA have a slight edge
Games between rival nations are like derby matches in club football. It does not matter if it is a friendly or a regular game. Even if a team are struggling, they can easily get right back up when facing an opponent.
The Mexican team appear to be in exactly that position, despite failing to win any of their friendlies in this window. Having won the last two head-to-heads, El Tri are confident they can do the same this time around. Unfortunately for them, the hosts have been playing some exciting attacking football and are thriving under Pochettino.
Since the start of the World Cup, the USA have won five matches and lost just twice. The visitors now head to Arizona winless in three outings, which gives more momentum to the home side. The USA lost the previous two meetings against Mexico, which should give them added incentive.
- USA vs Mexico Betting Tip 3: 1x2 - USA @ 7/5 with talkSPORT BET
USA vs Mexico - Main Match Odds with talkSPORT BET
| USA win | 6/5 |
| Draw | 9/4 |
| Mexico Win | 2/1 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1/1 |
| Both Teams to Score | 4/5 |
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: USA 3-1 Mexico
- Goalscorers prediction: USA: Sebastian Berhalter, Malik Tillman, Justin Ellis - Mexico: German Berterame
It’s been quite a productive international break for the US Men's National Team. They’ve won both games, despite suffering multiple changes to the starting XI in both matches. It seems that the USA team are fully buying into Mauricio Pochettino’s vision.
They didn’t just win those two friendlies against relatively decent opposition from South America; they did so convincingly. Pochettino should be happy to see his players, especially the younger ones, embrace their opportunity to play for the national team.
They are reigniting their rivalry with Mexico this weekend, with the hosts seeking revenge for their Gold Cup final defeat (2-1) in Texas last year.
Mexico showed true character at the World Cup, winning all three of their group games to qualify for the knockouts. El Tri then swept past Ecuador (2-0) in the Round of 32 but fell to England in the Round of 16. Javier Aguirre’s men made the Three Lions work hard for the win, losing 3-2 at the famed Azteca Stadium.
Instead of Aguirre, Rafael Marquez has been appointed as head coach after serving as an assistant during the World Cup. Marquez’s tenure hasn’t got off to a poor start, but it hasn’t been ideal either. Mexico managed two 1-1 draws, against Colombia at home and Peru away. Nothing would be sweeter than getting his first win on the job against bitter rivals.
Probable lineups for USA vs Mexico
USA expected lineup: Brady, Westfield, Pierre, M. Robinson, A. Robinson, Musah, Berhalter, Sullivan, Reyna, Tillman, Ellis
Mexico expected lineup: Garcia, Marquez, Guzman, Del Villar, C. Garcia, Fidalgo, D. Garcia, Vargas, Violante, Pineda, Berterame
USA vs Mexico - Key Match Info and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday 4 October in the UK
- Kick off time: 3:00am UK time
- Stadium: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
- UK TV: N/A