The Turks won their last home game with France in June 2019. However, the data suggests the visitors should take early charge of this contest.
Türki̇ye vs France Betting Predictions
All odds courtesy of Paddy Power - correct at time of publishing and subject to change
Zidane’s France to make a strong start
Zidane will surely want to make an early statement in his first game in charge. The former Real Madrid boss has waited patiently for the opportunity to manage the country he represented at international level.
With plenty of attention on France on Friday, Zidane hopes his players can be assertive from the start. Fortunately for him, he has the personnel capable of taking advantage if Türki̇ye are slow out of the blocks.
France have opened the scoring in 8 of their last 10 matches. Their hosts have conceded first in 4 of their last 5 games, including all 3 of their 2026 World Cup group games. These are obvious patterns to build on.
Türki̇ye are missing two of their best creators in Yildiz and Calhanoglu. This could give France an opportunity to establish control early. We can back Les Bleus to lead at the interval at almost a coin-flip implied probability (51.3%).
Olise’s domestic scoring rate is hugely impressive
The Bayern Munich forward is arguably in the form of his life. He’s scored a goal per game for Bayern in the Bundesliga and netted a brace in his first UCL appearance this term.
Olise’s numbers back up his recent output. He’s racked up 17 goal attempts, nine of which have hit the target. He scored a hat-trick and provided an assist in Bayern’s recent 7-0 thrashing of Union Berlin.
Olise delivers for his national team too. In June, he netted a hat-trick in their World Cup warm-up match with Northern Ireland. The market implies there’s only a 35.7% chance of him getting on the scoresheet. Based on his recent form, this seems far too cautious from the market, and we’re happy to take it on.
Türki̇ye have no obvious route to goal
Montella has a serious issue in the final third with his Türki̇ye side. They failed to score in two of their three 2026 World Cup group games. Things aren’t likely to get better, with Yildiz and Calhanoglu both sidelined for the visit of Les Bleus.
That leaves Arda Guler with much of the responsibility in the final third. Although he has a 42.58% goal contribution rate in the 2026/27 La Liga, it’s hard to see him breaching the French backline on his own. Lacroix and Upamecano have enough pace and power to keep Guler under control.
The atmosphere in Kocaeli is likely to be intense. However, the Turks’ lack of focal point up front will surely be highlighted further against one of the best teams in the world. The line for France to win with a clean sheet seems surprisingly high.
It may be somewhat influenced by their bizarre 6-4 loss to England at the World Cup third-place play-off. Nevertheless, we believe there’s more than a 35.7% implied chance of Les Bleus taking three points to nil.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Türki̇ye 0-2 France
- Goalscorers prediction: France: Olise, Mbappé
Türki̇ye and France begin their Group A1 campaign in the 2026/27 Nations League on Friday night in Kocaeli. Zinedine Zidane takes charge of the French national team for the first time.
Zidane replaced Didier Deschamps after the long-serving boss left his role following a bruising World Cup for Les Bleus. The French were pre-tournament favourites to lift the trophy, but eventually finished 4th after a 6-4 third-place play-off loss to England.
Zidane’s new era has begun with five uncapped players earning their first call-ups to the French senior squad. Guillaume Restes, Andy Diouf, Jérémy Jacquet, Lucas Da Cunha and Esteban Lepaul have all been included in the squad for the first time. Kylian Mbappé continues as captain.
Türki̇ye endured a bitterly disappointing 2026 World Cup campaign under Vincenzo Montella. They failed to score in 2 of their 3 group games, including an unexpected loss to Australia. They ended the campaign with a 3-2 win over hosts USA, but it wasn’t enough to advance to the knockout stages.
Montella and Türkiye must now regroup. He has named 33 players for September and October’s hectic Nations League schedule. Two big names are missing, with Kenan Yildiz (foot) and Hakan Calhanoglu (groin) ruled out for the foreseeable future.
Probable lineups for Türki̇ye vs France
Türki̇ye expected lineup: Çakır, Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu, Özcan, Yüksek, Yılmaz, Güler, Aktürkoğlu, Uzun
France expected lineup: Maignan, Koundé, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernández, Koné, Camavinga, Cherki, Olise, Mbappé, Doue