Both the Magpies and Villa sit in the EPL’s bottom half after six games. With both squads already stretched, Saturday’s game is a test of character.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Betting Predictions
All odds courtesy of bet365 - correct at time of publishing and subject to change
This fixture is historically an open contest
This fixture has become a goal fest in recent seasons. Eight of their last 10 meetings produced three or more goals. Their current form only reinforces that pattern.
Newcastle were wide open at the back at Coventry on Monday night. All of their last five league matches featured three or more goals. Both teams scored in every one of them too.
Villa have just put six past Fenerbahçe at Villa Park. Newcastle have conceded 13 goals in six league games, and Villa have also been involved in plenty of open games. The market feels there’s a 56% chance of both sides scoring and three or more goals landing. The underlying data suggests they’ll comfortably clear this line.
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Bet 1: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 with bet365
Villa arrive on Tyneside on a major high
Villa travel to Newcastle on an enormous high. They thrashed Fenerbahçe 6-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday, with Nicolas Jackson and Ross Barkley both scoring twice.
On the other hand, Newcastle are in a completely opposite place. They were soundly beaten 4-1 at Coventry on Monday night. That is a loss to a promoted side who had scored once all season before that game.
The injury list adds to the gloom on Tyneside. Elanga remains absent, while the likes of Will Osula, Dan Burn and Amar Dedić aren’t at peak match sharpness. Bazoumana Toure suffered a late injury at Coventry and also looks highly doubtful.
Backing Villa in the Draw No Bet market gives cover at St James’ Park. Villa are 16th in the League, but after Wednesday's performance, their current position shouldn’t be the deciding factor. The short-term momentum sits with the visitors.
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Bet 2: Aston Villa (Draw No Bet) @ 23/20 with bet365
Manzambi’s underlying data demands attention
According to the numbers, Johan Manzambi is Villa’s most threatening attacker at the moment. He posts the highest xG per 90 in the squad at 0.48. His 0.19 xA per 90 takes the combined figure to 0.67.
This means his goal contribution strike rate per 90 stands is at 67% this season. We can back him to score or assist at an implied probability of 37%, which feels way too low based on his current output. It’s arguably the top value bet from our Newcastle United vs Aston Villa predictions.
His shot volume is the part that catches attention the most. Manzambi is averaging 5.4 attempts per 90 minutes. Few midfielders anywhere shoot that often. Newcastle are the ideal opponent for that profile of a player. They allowed four at Coventry and 13 in six league games. Manzambi is expected to start in the number 10 role again, allowing him plenty of opportunities to score or assist.
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Bet 3: Johan Manzambi to Score or Assist @ 7/4 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Newcastle United 1-2 Aston Villa
- Goalscorers prediction: Newcastle United: Barnes - Aston Villa: Manzambi, Jackson
Newcastle United and Aston Villa lock horns on Tyneside for Saturday evening’s televised Premier League clash in Matchday 7.
The Magpies were humbled 4-1 by newly promoted Coventry City on Monday night. Matthias Jaissle’s side were in command of the game for large chunks of the contest. However, they squandered multiple opportunities and left gaping holes at the back for the home side to exploit.
Newcastle are still without their speedy winger Anthony Elanga, who is in his final stage of rehabilitation. Meanwhile, Bazoumana Toure suffered another injury after coming off the bench against Coventry. Joelinton is pushing hard for a start after playing over 30 minutes as a second-half substitute on Monday night.
Aston Villa’s domestic campaign has stuttered so far, but their impressive 6-0 Champions League win over Fenerbahçe should lift them up. Unai Emery’s men have won just one of their first six EPL games in 2026/27. They’ve averaged just one goal scored per game, and almost two goals conceded per 90.
Villa’s injury list has contributed to their slow start to the season. Amadou Onana, George Hemmings, Ian Maatsen, Matteo Ruggeri and Modou Keba Cisse are all missing currently. Offensively speaking, much rests on the shoulders of Nicolas Jackson and young prodigy Jonathan Manzambi.
Probable lineups for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Newcastle United expected lineup: Hornicek; Hall, Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Joelinton, Gonzalez, Barnes, Murphy, Wissa, Fernandez-Pardo
Aston Villa expected lineup: Suzuki; Cash, Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Mings, Gomes, Kamara, McGinn, Manzambi, Buendia, Jackson