Mexico have developed their defensive structure so far in 2026, conceding just once in their last six games. Will they shut out Australia on Sunday?
Best bets for Mexico vs Australia
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- Australia under 0.5 goals @ 6/5 with bet365
- Under 2.5 goals @ 19/20 with bet365
- Mexico to win and Both teams to score (No) @ 6/4 with bet365
Backing a clean sheet for El Tricolor
There are several reasons to back a clean sheet for Mexico this weekend. Australia will miss key player Riley McGree through injury. Meanwhile, boss Popovic is likely to rest the likes of Irankunda and D’Agostino. The former scored twice in their recent win over Curacao.
In addition, Mexico’s players will be desperate to impress before Aguirre names his official World Cup squad. Skipper, Edson Alvarez, may come into the lineup for some much-needed game time after shaking off an ankle problem.
With Mexico conceding only one goal in 2026, it’s surprising that a clean sheet for El Tricolor is priced at a probability of only 45%. For this particular fixture and scenario, that figure arguably feels closer to 50%.
- Mexico vs Australia Bet 1: Australia under 0.5 goals @ 6/5 with bet365
Rotated sides unlikely to generate a goal fest
Seven of Mexico’s last nine games in all competitions have featured two or fewer goals. Aguirre’s men have also kept clean sheets in seven of their last eight victories. This brings the potential for 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines into play this weekend.
The Socceroos are still experimenting with their fringe options, while Mexico are starting to take things seriously. It’s hard to see the likes of Martin Boyle troubling the Mexican backline too much.
77.78% of Mexico’s last nine games have produced two goals or fewer. As a result, Under 2.5 Goals looks appealing at an implied probability of 51.28%.
- Mexico vs Australia Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals @ 19/20 with bet365
Value on an El Tri win with a shutout
There’s also serious value in combining a Mexico win with a shutout in a double. Mexico have won four of their last six matches, including credible draws against Portugal and Belgium. They are currently a level above this Socceroos side.
The bookies believe there’s just a 40% chance of El Tricolor winning with a clean sheet. That’s despite their 66% win rate in 2026 and an 83% clean sheet rate over the same period.
The uncertainty surrounding starting lineups is arguably the cause of such a low probability. However, the likes of Martin Boyle and Connor Metcalfe are unlikely to trouble the Mexican backline, whoever lines up there. Mo Toure offers a wildcard option for Popovic from the bench, but the Norwich City striker is still inexperienced at this level.
- Mexico vs Australia Bet 3: Mexico to win and Both teams to score (No) @ 6/4 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Mexico 2-0 Australia
- Goalscorers prediction: Mexico: Berterame, Quinones - Australia: N/A
California’s Rose Bowl plays host to Mexico’s first 2026 World Cup warm-up game against the Socceroos of Australia.
Javier Aguirre’s co-host nation aim to build momentum ahead of the tournament and encourage the Mexican people to get behind their World Cup bid. This fixture is the final opportunity for some of Aguirre’s fringe players to stake a claim for a place in the official squad.
Aguirre is now in his third spell in charge of El Tricolor. They are unbeaten in 2026 so far, winning four of their six international matches. Interestingly, Mexico have lost five of their last six clashes with nations in the Asian/Oceania region. Nevertheless, it’s hard to see this stat becoming six defeats in seven.
The Socceroos have won their last two friendlies against Curacao and Cameroon, albeit unconvincingly. Prior to these wins, they had lost three in a row to the USA, Venezuela and Colombia, scoring only one goal. The Aussies need to beat this level of opposition to stand a chance of reaching the last 32.
Australia’s record in America is far from encouraging. They’ve lost their last three matches played on US soil. Boss, Tony Popovic, is expected to assess several fringe options in this game. This means youngsters such as Irankunda, Circati or Bos may not start.
Probable lineups for Mexico vs Australia
Mexico expected lineup: Rangel, Vasquez, Gallardo, Sanchez, Montes, Ed. Alvarez, Romo, Pineda, Chavez, Quinones, BerterameAustralia expected lineup: Ryan, Degenek, Trewin, Italiano, Circati, Rowles, O’Neill, Metcalfe, Robertson, Mabil, Boyle