With no European or cup distractions, Man Utd have a significant edge over their rivals in the race for Champions League qualification.
| Man Utd Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Draw or Man Utd & BTTS vs Newcastle | 11/10 |
| Top-four finish | 8/15 |
| Michael Carrick to be manager on the first game of the 26/27 season | 4/6 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The huge advantage Man Utd have over their top-five rivals
With English clubs performing well in Europe, the top five Premier League teams will likely qualify for the Champions League. Arsenal and Manchester City are almost certain to clinch two of those places.
Meanwhile, a close battle is brewing for the final three slots. Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool are all in the mix. These four sides are currently separated by just six points, with 11 games remaining. Man Utd’s current form suggests they won’t be the club to miss out.
A 1-0 victory at Everton on Monday made it 10 Premier League matches without defeat for the Red Devils. That’s their longest unbeaten run since a 14-game streak between January and May 2021 under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
Before their trip to Merseyside, United enjoyed a 13-day break. This rest followed their 1-1 draw at West Ham. Such a gap between fixtures is almost unprecedented in February.
They have other long breaks between key fixtures too. There will be 11 days between next week’s trip to Newcastle and a clash against Villa against Villa in mid-March. United will then have a three-week gap between their fixtures against Bournemouth and Leeds.
By contrast, all of their rivals in the top-five race are still competing on the continental stage. Those sides could play seven continental fixtures before the campaign ends.
Villa are the clear favourites to win the Europa League. Meanwhile, Liverpool and Chelsea have significant Champions League and FA Cup distractions.
Will United’s revival under Carrick continue?
Carrick’s side have now taken 16 points from six games. This run began after they stunned Manchester City and Arsenal in his first two matches. The 44-year-old has simplified the tactical approach, and is getting more out of key players. Even the previously misfiring Benjamin Sesko has scored crucial goals in their last two fixtures.
Another away trip to face an out-of-form Crystal Palace side is next for the Red Devils. They look capable of winning that fixture. They then travel to St James’ Park on Wednesday to face Newcastle.
This is where United’s quiet schedule could give them a real edge. Newcastle reached the EFL Cup semi-finals and are still in the FA Cup. They also negotiated a Champions League play-off against Qarabag recently.
Backing the visitors to avoid defeat is a smart move. Bettors can get bigger potential returns by making it a combo with both teams to score. While they’ve appeared slightly better defensively under Carrick, United had gone 18 away league games without a clean sheet before Monday.
Also, there is value in backing Man Utd to finish in the top four. Villa are struggling currently, with three key midfielders sidelined due to injury. Meanwhile, Chelsea have some really tough fixtures ahead, which could mean the end of Liam Rosenior’s honeymoon period.
These factors suggest United can reach a strong position by late April. This may force the board to announce Carrick as the permanent manager then.
The hierarchy will be keen to avoid any unnecessary uncertainty. If Carrick keeps winning, it’s unlikely that they will appoint anyone else. That suggests the ex-Middlesbrough boss is worth backing to get the job with an implied probability of 60%.