Italy vs Turkiye Betting Predictions
Odds courtesy of Sky Bet, correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Italy’s domination of this fixture
The hosts are still in the conversation for qualifying from the group, and a home win will put pressure on Belgium and France. The positive news for Italy is that they’ve won four of the last six internationals that they’ve hosted. That’s encouraging since two of their final three Nations League fixtures are in their backyard.
Turkiye head into this fixture after five defeats in their last six games, including last three in a row. That horrid run started at the World Cup, where they won just one group game, which wasn’t enough to save them from early elimination. What makes matters worse for Montella’s men is that they’ve never beaten Italy in their history.
Italy have won 11 of the previous 15 head-to-heads, while drawing four. With the home side winning the reverse fixture 4-1, they have another chance to rack up goals. Three of the last four meetings saw the goal count exceed two, all since the turn of the decade.
- Italy vs Turkiye Betting Tip 1: Italy to win & Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11 with Sky Bet
Visitors missing key personnel
Historically, games between Turkiye and Italy have produced goals at both ends, more precisely in six of the previous eight head-to-heads. However, this Turkiye side are struggling to find the back of the net. The visitors have scored just one goal in their last three matches. Interestingly, it did come against Italy.
The problem is converting chances, as they’ve managed 50 shots across those three games. Two of their attack-minded players won’t be available for the trip to Bologna. Arda Guler and Baris Yilmaz are both serving a suspension, while Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz are injured.
With crucial players missing, the visitors' task of scoring becomes harder. Additionally, Turkiye failed to score in five of their last six defeats, suggesting they’re likely to struggle here. Four of Italy’s last six home matches ended in a clean-sheet win, while both teams scored in only one of those games.
- Italy vs Turkiye Betting Tip 2: BTTS - No @ 21/20 with Sky Bet
Minutes breed confidence for Esposito
Mancini’s preferred choice to lead the Italian line across the three Nations League matches has been Pio Esposito. The Inter Milan forward didn’t disappoint, providing an assist and scoring once in that run. In 2026, Esposito made 12 appearances for the national team and scored six goals.
A goal every other game for a national team is a decent return for a 21-year-old forward. His minutes at club level have been minimal, with just two 90-minute appearances so far this season. Interestingly, in both instances, Esposito got his name on the scoresheet.
He benefits from time on the pitch, and Mancini seems to be providing it. Having already scored against this Turkish defence, it makes sense to back Esposito to make a nuisance of himself on Monday night.
- Italy vs Turkiye Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Pio Esposito @ 23/20 with Sky Bet
Italy vs Turkey - Match Odds with Sky Bet
| Italy Win | 1/3 |
| Draw | 4/1 |
| Turkey Win | 13/2 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 4/9 |
| Both Teams to Score | 4/6 |
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Italy 3-0 Turkiye
- Goalscorers prediction: Italy: Pio Esposito, Moise Kean, Davide Frattesi
Italy arrive back on home soil after two consecutive away games in the Nations League. Roberto Mancini suffered a defeat upon his return to the Italian dugout at home to Belgium 2-0. Because of that, the Azzurri will be looking to rectify that for the fans in Bologna on Monday night.
After the initial loss, Mancini’s men are starting to make gradual progress. They bounced back from that matchday one defeat to secure a 4-1 away win against Turkiye. They then showed resilience last Friday in Paris against France to secure a point after a 1-1 draw. The result left them in third place behind France and Belgium, which means three points are a must on Monday.
Turkiye’s maiden League A campaign continued in the same way as their underwhelming World Cup performance. Vincenzo Montella was given another chance and spared sacking, but will not be given another chance after. The Crescent-Stars have lost all three Group 1 games, leaving them dead last and without a point.
With three games remaining in the group stage, the challenge for Turkiye to get into the top two is minimal. A trip to France and a home clash with Belgium await in November. The chances of this Turkish team qualifying out of the group seem slim to none. Whatever hopes they have rest on the visitors securing a victory in Bologna on Monday, or facing the reality of relegation to League B.
Probable lineups for Italy vs Turkiye
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Barella, Tonali, Frattesi, Vergara, P. Esposito, Kean
Turkiye expected lineup: Cakir, Kabak, Demiral, Celik, Kadioglu, Ozcan, Yuksek, Elmali, Akgun, Akturkoglu, Gul
Italy vs Turkey - Key Match Info & Where to Watch
- Date: Monday 5 October 2026
- Kick off time: 7:45pm UK time
- Stadium: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
- UK TV: Amazon Prime Video, pay per view