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Patrick Mahomes may need to carry the Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) on Sunday Night Football if they’re going to defeat the Houston Texans, who have allowed the fewest points in the league up to this point.
Texans vs Chiefs Predictions
Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- Woody Marks Over 46.5 Rushing Yards @ 17/20 with bet365
- Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards @ 6/5 with bet365
- Chiefs to Win and Both Teams to Score 20+ Points: “No” @ 5/4 with bet365
Woody Winning More Carries - Woody Marks Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
Houston Texans running back Woody Marks was dealing with an ankle injury earlier in the week, but he was able to return to practice on Thursday and should be good to go tonight. The rookie out of USC’s NFL career got off to a slow start, but he’s had some solid games as of late.
Marks’ workload has increased in recent weeks, and he had a career-high 19 carries in the 20-16 against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13. He picked up 64 rushing yards last Sunday and 74 on 16 carries in the win over the Bills the week before.
In the previous four games, Marks has as many rushing attempts (67) as he did in the first eight games of his career. He’s being trusted more, and it’s translated into more yards. The Chiefs are merely average at stopping the run, and Marks should go over 46.5 rushing yards tonight.
- Texans vs Chiefs Prediction 1: Woody Marks Over 46.5 Rushing Yards @ 17/20 with bet365
Mahomes to Carry the Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards
Heading into this game, the Texans have allowed just one quarterback, reigning MVP Josh Allen, to throw for 250 yards or more. Patrick Mahomes is a two-time MVP, and he has managed 250 passing yards in nine straight games.
To stay in the AFC Playoff race, the Chiefs will need Mahomes to have a huge game on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City’s rushing attack is nothing to write home about, so Mahomes has thrown 36.8 passes per game this season.
Texans’ opponents are averaging only 5.6 yards per passing attempt this season. Still, they’ve also played two games against Titans rookie Cam Ward, another pair against hit-or-miss Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, and another against Ravens backup Cooper Rush.
In a tight 23-20 overtime comeback win against the Colts, Mahomes managed 352 passing yards. He also picked up 250 in Week 9 against the Buffalo Bills, who give up the fewest passing yards in the league. Go with Mahomes 250+ passing yards tonight.
- Texans vs Chiefs Prediction 2: Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards @ 6/5 with bet365
Chiefs to Win a Close Game - Chiefs to Win and Both Teams to Score 20+ Points: “No"
As great as Houston’s defense is, the Texans are not exactly an efficient offensive team. This season, the Texans have scored under 20 points in six of their 12 games. The visitors rank 21st in the NFL this season, with 21.9 points per game.
So, even if the Texans manage to slow down the Chiefs, which is certainly possible, Kansas City will hang around because the Texans struggle to blow opponents away. Houston’s Week 13 win at Indianapolis is overshadowed by Colts QB Daniel Jones playing with a fractured fibula.
Patrick Mahomes can cause a lot more problems than a hobbled Jones could, and the Texans’ other two road wins this season were against the 1-11 Titans and Ravens without Lamar Jackson.
This has the makings of a close game, but the Chiefs are on a five-game winning streak at Arrowhead for a reason. Take the Chiefs to win and a “No” on both teams to score 20+ points
- Texans vs Chiefs Prediction 3: Chiefs to Win and Both Teams to Score 20+ Points: “No” @ 5/4 with bet365