With only one place separating England and Sweden in the world rankings, the Swedes offer excellent value in this last-8 clash and are worth backing.
Best bets for Sweden W vs England W
- Sweden W to Win
- Under 2.5 goals
- Sweden W (1st goal)
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Huge value on the in-form Swedes to win
The betting markets have made the Lionesses heavy favourites to win this week’s quarter-final tie with Sweden. They believe Wiegman’s women have a 50% chance of victory, giving the Swedes a mere 29.41% probability of winning inside 90 minutes.
Given Sweden’s red-hot form in the group stages and the numerous question marks surrounding England’s system, the Lionesses seem highly overrated.
The odds may also be influenced by England’s 4-0 win over Sweden in the 2022 Euros semi-finals, but this is an England team in transition. Although the Lionesses could improve further to knock Sweden out, our Sweden W vs England W predictions see value in backing the Swedes.
- Sweden W vs England W Bet 1: Sweden W to win at odds of 5/2 with Paddy Power
Don’t expect a basketball match
Although all three of England’s group games featured three or more goals and two of Sweden’s group games also went over 2.5 goals, we don’t anticipate a goalfest in Zurich.
Sweden will be eager to contain and frustrate the Lionesses and pick them off on the break in clinical fashion.
The two nations have already met twice in Euro 2025 qualifying - the first clash in England ended 1-1, and the second ended goalless in Sweden. Given that a semi-final place is at stake here, it’s always hard to back high-scoring affairs in the latter stages of a tournament.
- Sweden W vs England W Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 3/4 with Paddy Power
Backing Sweden to break the deadlock
Sweden have scored first in two of their three group games, and England did the same in two of theirs.
Given that the Swedes have a great opportunity to capitalise on the Lionesses’ defensive weaknesses, we’re happy to back them to score first at an odds-against price.
The betting markets currently give them a 41.67% chance of scoring first compared to 57.14% for England. We believe it should be much closer to 50% for Peter Gerhardsson’s side to strike first.
- Sweden W vs England W Bet 3: Sweden W (1st goal) at odds of 13/10 with Paddy Power
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Sweden Women and England Women prepare to face each other on Thursday evening in a re-run of their semi-final clash at the 2022 Euros.
It’s been a mightily impressive tournament so far for the Swedes, who topped Group C with a 100% record, conceding only one goal in three games. They thrashed Germany 4-1 in their final group game - a nation currently ranked third in the women’s world rankings.
Sweden play a very different style of football to England. They possess serious pace on the flanks and like to sit back and pick teams off on the counter-attack. This kind of fast, direct approach is something England have notoriously struggled with of late.
Sarina Wiegman’s Lionesses have grown into the competition so far. The defending champions lost their opening group game 2-1 to France in a lacklustre display. They’ve since bounced back with successive wins over the Netherlands and Wales.
The return of Ella Toone to the Lionesses’ midfield appears to have been a smart move in recent games. She was benched for the game against France, but her poise in possession and defensive awareness have been invaluable against the Dutch and Welsh.
Probable lineups for Sweden W vs England W
Sweden Women expected lineup: Falk; Andersson, Holmberg, Bjorn, Eriksson, Asllani, Olme, Angeldahl, Blackstenius, Kaneryd, Rolfo
England Women expected lineup: Hampton; Greenwood, Bronze, Williamson, Carter, Walsh, Toone, Stanway, Hemp, James, Russo