Rafael Leao next club odds: From Milan to Manchester

AC Milan’s poor end to the season saw them miss out on the Champions League. Leao wants a new challenge. The Premier League is his pick.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

End of an era at the San Siro

Rafael Leao joined AC Milan from Lille in 2019. Seven years later, he leaves with 80 goals and 65 assists in 291 appearances. He won the Scudetto in 2022 and the Supercoppa Italiana in 2024. However, the 2025/26 season was one to forget. Leao registered just 10 goals and three assists in 31 appearances.

The numbers reflect a player operating below his usual standards. Leao was the Serie A MVP in 2021/22, playing a key role in the Rossoneri’s rise. His best-scoring season came right after in 2022/23, when he racked 16 goals in 48 appearances. Along with 15 assists, that translates to a goal involvement ratio of 0.64 per 90 minutes.

However, the subsequent three campaigns have only seen him underperform. The 2024/25 season was his poorest so far, with only 12 strikes in 50 appearances. That averages a mere 0.24 goals per game.

The Rossoneri finished the season poorly, missing out on Champions League football for yet another season. His frustration at the disastrous end of the season was evident when he spoke to the media.

“Personally, I’ve given everything at AC Milan," he told Sport TV. "I'm proud I made history at Milan, but I dream of a new challenge in a new league. I’m ready for a new chapter". He also revealed he spent half the season playing through injury in an unnatural position under Massimiliano Allegri.

His contract runs until 2028, but Milan are willing to part ways with him for around €50 million. Once valued closer to €100 million, a drop in form and a contract winding down make him a potential bargain for suitors.

His next destination remains uncertain. Four clubs and one league stand out.

Red Devils ready to pounce for Leao?

Manchester United have emerged as frontrunners. Michael Carrick's side have returned to the Champions League after a two-year absence and aim to revamp their attack.

Leao has fuelled speculation after expressing his concrete admiration for United. In a podcast appearance, he revealed: "I like United because my idol is Cristiano Ronaldo. So back then I used to watch them."

The Red Devils have officially added Leao to their transfer shortlist, but it remains to be seen whether they make a strong push for his services. Reports from Italy suggest United are one of the several Premier League clubs Milan have contacted regarding a potential deal.

Meanwhile in England, reports have emerged to suggest that United are accelerating talks with Milan. Whether he is made for the Premier League is a different question altogether. Leao’s numbers paint a mixed picture. If United are looking for a reliable source of goals, Leao might not be their man. The last time the Portuguese winger reached double goal figures in a league campaign was back in 2022/23. He netted 15 in 35 Serie A games.

He has registered six goals and seven assists across 30 career appearances in the Champions League. With Portugal, he’s only scored four times in 44 appearances before the 2026 World Cup.

The market considers Old Trafford to be Leao’s most likely destination. If his dream is to follow Ronaldo's path, the value lies here. Yet, his inconsistency in big games and occasional peripheral performances remain a concern.

Turkish giants are serious contenders

Galatasaray have emerged as serious contenders. The Turkish champions are reportedly offering Leao a contract until 2030 worth €10m per year. That is way above most clubs are ready to propose in terms of wages.

Trends suggest he could follow suit as one of the many Serie A stars choosing Turkey as their next destination. Leao could join the likes of Victor Osimhen, Nicolo Zaniolo or Mauro Icardi.

Each of them moved to Galatasaray at some point in their career. Although not all of them have flourished, Osimhen and Icardi are good examples of Serie A players prospering in Istanbul.

For example, Osimhen scored 20 more league goals for Galatasaray than he did in his final year in Italy with Napoli.

Icardi, who moved from Inter Milan to Paris Saint-Germain in 2019/20, has scored 65 league goals in 96 games in the Süper Lig. That is 0.68 goals per game. The ratio is higher than the one he maintained in seven Serie A seasons (0.55) during spells with Inter Milan and Sampdoria.

Leao is not a traditional centre-forward like Osimhen or Icardi. Still, the Süper Lig tends to suit explosive, one‑on‑one forwards who thrive in transition, making Leao a natural fit.

Moreover, head coach Okan Buruk values versatile players. Leao’s ability to switch between the wings and the support striker position is priceless. However, his priority remains the Premier League. Recent reports claim he has no desire to move to Turkey. Yet, the odds suggest otherwise. Betting markets have Galatasaray in the running.

They are willing to wait until after the World Cup for his decision. A salary that matches his ambition and a team desperate for a star could make this a realistic option.

Stamford Bridge calling

As per reports from Italy and England, Chelsea are keeping a close eye on Leao’s situation. The Blues have come close to signing Leao before. The big spenders have been turned down on a couple of occasions, including after Leao led Milan to the Scudetto a few years ago.

This time, Milan's reduced leverage changes the landscape. The Serie A giants have already made their stance clear, and the London giants could now act on the opportunity. However, it is going to be far from straightforward, with local rivals Arsenal also in the mix.

The Blues have identified several attacking signings, though Leao is reportedly not high on their transfer wish list.

The odds suggest Chelsea are one of the outsiders among the Premier League triofor Leao’s signature.

With the riches of attacking talent at his disposal, Xabi Alonso might not hand him out a starting role just yet. At the same time, a secondary role off the bench might suit him, particularly against tired defences. That has been his story with Portugal so far, where he started only 24 of his 44 matches with the national team.

At Milan, Leao struggled with injuries the past season. He appeared off the bench six times in 29 Serie A games without making any real impact. Whether he is willing to accept such a reduced role at a new club remains to be seen.

If Chelsea miss out on their primary targets, they could pivot back to the Portuguese winger. The potential for a last-minute move makes this a value play.

Gunners still scoping Portuguese winger

Among all Premier League clubs, Arsenal are firmly the outsiders in terms of odds. However, Leao’s recent admission should change the dynamic in no time if any talks begin between the two parties.

In his recent interview, Leao said: "I like Arsenal also. I used to go to London. I like the city, I have friends and family there."

Arsenal have inquired about Leao’s availability. Mikel Arteta aims to bolster his Premier League-winning squad with fresh faces this summer despite having a tight-knit group across different positions.

The Gunners have been linked with Leao in the past. Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard are Arteta’s first-choice options on the left flank, with 53 and 50 caps respectively in the 2025/26 season. They will be difficult to displace. It remains to be seen how Leao would be deployed by Arteta. The competition for a starting spot is fierce amongst the Premier League winners.

Yet, his price tag makes him a realistic target. So does his preference for the English capital. The odds are the longest of the four, representing real value if Arsenal decide to pursue him more seriously.

Leaving the San Siro isn’t as easy as it seems

Despite his public talk, reports from Italy suggest Leao remains eager to redeem himself in Serie A. He has also reportedly told senior AC Milan advisor Zlatan Ibrahimovic he wants to stay to put a difficult campaign behind him.

The prospect of working under a Portuguese manager in Ruben Amorim could also appeal to him. However, Milan's owners view him as expendable and are willing to listen to offers.

The market suggests a move is more likely than a stay. Manchester United are favourites, but Galatasaray, Chelsea and Arsenal are also in the frame. With the World Cup set to showcase his talent, the odds could shift quickly.