Opta’s expected points table has these three teams at opposite ends, which opens the door for bettors to take advantage.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| Top five finish | Manchester United to finish in the top five | 6/5 |
| To finish bottom half | Newcastle to finish bottom half | 4/5 |
| Top six finish | Bournemouth to finish in top six | 6/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Expectations vs reality
After five matchdays, the Premier League is on a three-week international break. It’s a point in the season when the table can mislead as much as it informs. There is a big discrepancy between underlying metrics and actual table position for some teams.
Bettors can exploit generous pricing in some outright markets. After all, we’re not even 15% of the way through the season. Manchester United and Bournemouth are two of the teams to watch after underperforming in their opening five fixtures. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s top-half start cannot be seen in the underlying numbers.
The current international break offers a chance to reflect on early performances. It’s a longer break than we’re used to seeing. Managers can fix what’s going wrong and come back refreshed for the next part of the season. There’s a feeling that bookmakers haven’t caught up with this changed format.
Man United’s shot problem
Manchester United are one of the league's biggest underperformers, currently sitting 12th but should be 4th according to Opta’s expected points table.
The data implies the Red Devils should have won 8.3 points by now. They’re currently on five points from as many games. United have plenty of attacking talent, but that hasn’t converted into points.
Michael Carrick’s side have an xG (expected goals) of 9.89, the fourth highest in the league. However, they’ve taken a league-high 113 shots, well clear of second-place Brighton on 95. The Red Devils’ tally of 28 shots on target is just one behind the Seagulls.
The problem for Carrick’s troops is their finishing. Their shot conversion rate of 7.08% is the fifth-lowest in the division. This data suggests that United aren’t taking their shots from the right areas. When the league returns, that should be Carrick’s first goal. We’ll see things change for United as a result.
Cherries on top?
Bournemouth’s season hasn’t gone according to plan. The Cherries sit 17th after five games under new manager Marco Rose. That’s not an ideal start for the former RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund boss, but the data paints a kinder picture. The expected points table has them in 12th in the Premier League on 6.8 points, 3.8 more than what they actually have.
Bournemouth’s issue has been game management. They’ve led in four of their five matches, but dropped nine points from winning positions. That’s the most in the Premier League.
Bournemouth’s xG of 6.72 places them 14th in the division. 68 shots and 26 on target suggest a discrepancy between those numbers and their positioning. They’ve defended well with an xGA (expected goals against) of 6.94. That is actually lower than table-topping Manchester City’s 7.25.
The Cherries’ pressing game is worth highlighting as well, as they recorded 42 high turnovers, the fourth-highest in the Premier League. Their 58 pressed sequences are the joint-fifth-highest in the league. This collective data is enough to back Bournemouth to start moving up the table once the league resumes.
Magpies grounded after the international break
Newcastle provide the other side of the argument, as they are ninth with eight points, but their xPTS (expected points) says otherwise. Opta’s data places the Magpies rock bottom of the Premier League, with an xPTS of 4.1.
Newcastle’s xG of 5.29 places them in the bottom five. Their xG difference of 3.71 is the second-worst, behind only Brighton.
Matthias Jaissle’s men lost the xG battle in every league game they’ve played so far, even against newly promoted Hull City. Their xGA for the season so far is 9.05, beaten out only by Fulham and Crystal Palace.
Newcastle have also conceded the most shots in the league at 97, and the second-most shots on target at 28. Those numbers highlight defensive issues that need to be addressed if Newcastle want to maintain their position in the top half.
Betting on the resurgence
The value here comes in backing teams like Man United and Bournemouth to meet their expectations and realign with the underlying metrics. The bookmakers have these sides as favourites to meet their expectations. However, there is still value in backing them.
Bournemouth in particular look like a great bet to finish in the top six at those prices. There is a clear gap between process and results, making them a great option to back for a turnaround. If Manchester United can get their attack firing, they look a good bet to reach the top five.
Newcastle provide the opposite side of the argument, as they have significantly overperformed the data. For this reason, it’s worth backing the Magpies to drop off once the league resumes.