Despite failing to win any of their first four Premier League games, Tottenham, Coventry, and Aston Villa have time to alter their trajectory.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Top half finish | Aston Villa to finish in the top half of the table | 11/10 |
| Top four finish | Aston Villa to finish in the top four | 12/1 |
| Top half finish | Tottenham Hotspur to finish in the upper half | 33/50 |
| Both teams to score - Yes | Nottingham Forest vs Coventry | 3/4 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Poor starts don’t define a season
After four Premier League matches, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, and Coventry City have yet to register a single victory.
Spurs and Coventry still haven’t put the ball in the back of the net in this competition, with the latter yet to put a point on the board. Villa only won their first point of the Premier League campaign with a goalless draw against newly promoted Hull City two weeks ago.
Four games form just a tiny portion of a 38-match season, which is why the current league table doesn’t tell the complete story. Tottenham’s underlying attacking numbers are better than their results.
Villa have a very recent example of digging themselves out of a similar hole. Coventry’s most realistic short-term target is far narrower - scoring a goal.
All these elements offer significant value for bettors, considering the shift in pricing. It’s worth exploring these teams in detail and their respective ambitions for the season, alongside what they’ve produced in the opening four matchdays.
Stories of recovery
Villa are the clearest reminder that September doesn’t always tell the truth.
Unai Emery’s side also opened the 2025/26 Premier League season without a win in their first four matches, yet still finished fourth. That doesn’t guarantee the same outcome, but Villa are integrating 10 new signings. Last season showed that things can change quickly in this division.
Before Tottenham’s current goal drought, five Premier League sides had failed to score in their opening four matches, and none were relegated.
Sheffield Wednesday finished 13th in 1994/95, Newcastle United ended 2005/06 in seventh, Swansea City finished 11th in 2011/12. Aston Villa recovered to finish fourth last season. Crystal Palace turned an even worse 2017/18 opening into an 11th-place finish after going seven games without a goal or a point.
Coventry’s case is slightly tougher. The newly promoted side are the eighth promoted Premier League team to lose their first four matches. Only Southampton in 2012/13 survived from the previous seven examples.
The broader picture is not entirely hopeless. Eight of the 18 teams to lose their first four Premier League games eventually stayed up, most recently Everton in 2024/25.
Hope behind the numbers
Villa have already shown they can recover from a difficult start, but they need their team to click. They also need to translate their European form onto the domestic scene.
The Villains' 3-2 triumph over Club Brugge in the Champions League shouldn’t be overlooked. It showed that Emery’s men can deliver strong performances. They recorded an xG (expected goals) of 3.22 compared to Brugge’s 1.53.
Still, improvements are clearly needed in the league. Villa rank bottom for xG, with just 3.39 and only one goal to show for it. Their xGA (expected goals against) placed them in the bottom five, with 7.35.
Emery will be eager to address those issues at both ends of the pitch. Yet, Villa recorded an xG of 2.69 and scored three goals in their EFL Cup win during the week. They allowed an xGA of 0.67, which means the signs are positive.
Tottenham have the clearest gap between their results and underlying numbers of the three teams.
Despite not scoring yet, they average 0.86 xG per 90 and 12.75 shots per match. Their 51 shots place them 12th in the league, just one shot behind early leaders Manchester City. Against Liverpool in the EFL Cup, Spurs recorded an xG of 2.24 compared to the Reds’ 1.85, yet they only scored once.
The more convincing explanation is poor execution and a team still being built on the move. Roberto De Zerbi says Tottenham’s 10 senior arrivals mean the side are still developing an identity. The manager stressed the need for better organisation with and without the ball, alongside sharper decisions in the final third.
Coventry’s case rests on the immediate future instead of the long term. They simply need to find a goal. The Sky Blues did find the back of the net against Premier League opponents in the EFL Cup, when they scored against Aston Villa.
Overall, they have an xG of 4.21 across four games and have taken 41 shots, 11 more than Man City. Despite losing 5-0 to Brighton last time out, Coventry had an xG of 1.33 and recorded 14 shots, six of which were on target.
The signs are there for Frank Lampard’s men, and they look likely to break their Premier League drought soon.
Betting on recovery
The cleaner route here is to see both teams score when Coventry visit Nottingham Forest this weekend. Forest concede an average of one goal per 90, and they have an overall xGA of 4.12. This pick requires Coventry to score once against a side that conceded an xGA of 1.06 in their last home outing in the league.
Tottenham’s shot volume, xG numbers and the historical record around four-game goalless starts suggest a top-half recovery is possible. That will depend on their finishing improving and De Zerbi’s new-look side becoming more settled.
Tottenham only need to return to the upper half rather than overcome their entire start immediately. They have 34 matches remaining to move up the table. Spurs’ major summer investment also means there is considerable scope for improvement once De Zerbi's new-look side start to develop greater cohesion.
Villa have already shown a recovery from this position is possible. Their numbers do require improving, but Emery is likely to get his team sorted sooner rather than later.
The signs in the EFL Cup match and Europe already point to newer players starting to settle. With 34 games still to play, the Villains can be backed to perform a repeat of last season or get into the top half.
Coventry’s opening fixture list was brutal. However, the Brighton game at least suggested they can create enough to score a goal against a softer opponent.
The historical record for promoted teams in this position is less encouraging. This makes Coventry’s survival case harder to support than Tottenham’s potential route back towards mid-table or Villa’s prospects of climbing into the top half.
The smarter play is to avoid treating the first four matches as a final verdict on Tottenham or Villa while keeping Coventry’s recovery case narrow. The immediate bet is BTTS-Yes at the City Ground, where one Coventry goal is more attainable than forecasting a complete season-long turnaround.