Marseille are flying in Ligue 1 with five straight wins. However, the underlying numbers tell a very different story at the back.
2026/27 Ligue 1 betting markets | Odds |
Marseille vs Le Mans (Marseille to win and both teams to score) | 33/20 |
Auxerre vs Marseille (Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals) | 5/6 |
All odds courtesy of bet365 - correct at time of publishing and subject to change
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Are Marseille as good as their results suggest?
Marseille are in excellent form at the moment. Their 2-1 win at RC Lens made it five successive Ligue 1 wins. They have climbed into fourth place in the division as a result, moving alongside PSG as joint-top scorers in Ligue 1.
Marseille now have the second-best goal difference (+8) in the division after defending champions PSG (+12). Is it all sustainable?
Marseille are fourth in the league for the most touches in the opposition box (256). This suggests they regularly commit players forward and get into dangerous attacking positions. However, they have only the ninth-best record for goals conceded per match (1.4).
Marseille sit fourth after ten matches, with 18 points from six wins and four defeats. The recent run of five wins has transformed their season, showcasing a real turnaround in results and output.
This has come with a defensive vulnerability the scorelines have so far concealed. No Ligue 1 side has allowed more expected goals (xGA) than Marseille (22.48). This combination is rare among teams challenging for titles.
They’ve won their last four Ligue 1 games, but the underlying data paints a different picture. They conceded a total of six goals on 9.25 xGA and a whopping 16 big chances in those fixtures.
Even the seemingly comfortable 2-0 home win over Toulouse was not without its hazards. Marseille lost the xG battle in that one. The visitors had more shots, more possession and more than twice as many touches in the opposition area.
The pattern runs through the whole season. The opposition has reached at least 1.0 xG in nine of Marseille’s ten league matches. In their 2-1 defeat at home to PSG, Les Parisiens racked up a staggering 5.09 in xG.
Winning while allowing that many quality chances is rarely sustainable, and it tends to produce open, high-scoring games.
Marseille’s move up to fourth is deserved on results, but the glaring defensive weaknesses suggest this side aren’t as dominant as the table might suggest. For bettors, that gap between results and process is where the opportunity lies.
Why does this create betting value?
Just half of Marseille’s first ten matches in the 2026/27 Ligue 1 have featured goals at both ends. Yet, this 50% statistic is somewhat misleading, especially since nine of their ten opponents posted at least 1.0 xG.
The chances have clearly been there for the opposition to find the net more often than the scorelines suggest. The only team to miss the 1.0 xG mark were Strasbourg (0.18) on the opening day of the season. Strasbourg also played the final 30 minutes with ten men, which distorts the overall picture.
Le Havre’s 4-3 loss at Marseille proves the sort of game those defensive profiles can produce. With that in mind, we’re siding with goals in Marseille’s two upcoming Ligue 1 games after the international break.
First up, Marseille host Le Mans, one of the weaker sides in the division. Le Mans sit second from bottom and have won only one of their ten Ligue 1 matches this term.
Marseille should have enough firepower to see them off at home, but it’s hard to trust their backline given the defensive data. That makes a double of a home win and both teams to score especially appealing here. We can find additional value in backing a Marseille win while opposing them to keep a clean sheet.
Le Mans’ xG (13.8) is the 12th-best in the division. They’ve underperformed by 6.1 goals when taking into account their xG and xGA.
Finally, goals in the Auxerre vs Marseille game also seem likely. The bookmakers have set the goal line at 3.25, which isn’t a surprise. Auxerre have failed to score in only one of their ten Ligue 1 matches this season. A Marseille side that concede chances at this rate should give them opportunities.
When combined with Marseille’s own attacking output, backing BTTS and over 2.5 goals looks like a sound way to back goals at both ends.