David Moyes’ unbeaten side have started the season well, but this news is likely to have a big impact on the club and its ambitions going forward.
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Potential sale adds to the uncertainty at Everton
Everton were bought by the American group TFG, who also own Roma, for more than £400m in 2024. They oversaw the club’s move to the new Hill Dickinson Stadium last year. However, a turbulent summer raised doubts about their long-term commitment.
Last Friday, TFG released a statement saying they are “exploring new investment options for Everton Football Club, including the potential sale of a controlling interest.”
On one hand, the news came as little surprise given the club’s limited transfer business ahead of this season. Moyes was left with just 18 senior outfield players after the club sold several players, including Iliman Ndiaye, who joined Man City for £65m.
The departure of Beto also sparked fan anger, given it left the Toffees with just one senior striker. The club also pursued Monaco striker Folarin Balogun, but the deal fell through after issues arose during his medical.
Moyes, who is in the final year of his contract, has been openly critical of the club’s failure to invest. Supporters were also left fuming after a £35m bid from Nottingham Forest was accepted for England Under-19 midfielder Harrison Armstrong.
Everton did ultimately pull out of that deal. However, the angry reaction to the potential sale of a highly-rated homegrown talent highlighted the growing discontent with TFG’s ownership.
Their decision to look for a new buyer casts extra uncertainty on what was shaping up to be a promising season. Everton, one of just six Premier League ever-present clubs, haven’t lost any of their opening six matches. They’ve also made progress in the EFL Cup, with the Toffees bidding to end a 31-year trophy drought.
Everton have not won a major trophy since 1995, when they lifted the FA Cup and Charity Shield. They are the only club in English football's current top four tiers that have not won a trophy or been promoted this century.
Since 2000, they have been beaten in two FA Cup semi-finals and two EFL Cup semi-finals. Everton did reach the 2009 FA Cup final under Moyes, but were defeated 2-1 by Chelsea.
Even in the league, Everton fans have been starved of moments to savour. Their side have won just five of the 53 Merseyside derbies in the English top flight since 2000. During that period in the Premier League, Everton have also failed to win away at Chelsea. They have managed just one victory at Arsenal and only two at Manchester United.
How will the Toffees’ season be impacted?
While they may have announced their openness to a sale, there is no guarantee TFG will quickly find a buyer. Football club takeovers can be lengthy affairs. That could have serious repercussions when it comes to the January window.
Assuming Everton haven’t been bought by a new party by then, the current owners may be reluctant to invest. That could leave Moyes short on numbers for the remainder of the campaign. With that in mind, it’s worth reconsidering whether Everton offer value in the top-half and top-six Premier League markets.
The Toffees have shortened slightly in both markets since the start of the campaign. They are currently given an implied probability of 55% of finishing in the top half. Meanwhile, Moyes’ side remain long shots to finish in the top six, with an implied chance of 15%.
The uncertainty off the pitch, combined with Everton’s recent history, suggests neither bet represents value. The Merseysiders faded to a 13th-place finish last term, despite being only three points off a potential Champions League place in March. They’ve not finished higher than that in any of the previous five seasons.
A strong defence has been the catalyst for their bright start this time around. Everton have conceded just five goals, which is the joint-best record in the division. However, their xGA tally of 8.3 (expected goals against) suggests they’ve not been quite as solid as that record suggests.
Thierno Barry, the club’s only recognised striker, has scored six times in eight matches across all competitions. The Frenchman is looking confident, but the lack of cover for the 23-year-old is a genuine concern.
Everton could be higher than fifth had they been more clinical in their 2-2 draw away to Hull last time out. They have now made their longest unbeaten start to a Premier League season since 2013/14. That was the campaign in which Roberto Martinez led them to a fifth-place finish.
The Toffees’ highest Premier League finish of fourth place came in the 2004/05 season under Moyes. He had just 21 players in his squad then and is working with the same figure this time around. While Moyes is clearly capable of working under difficult conditions, he’ll struggle to repeat that feat in a more competitive era.
Despite their strong start, Everton may struggle to maintain a top-six position with a weaker squad than last season. With limited scope to strengthen in January, backing the Toffees to finish in the bottom half could offer value.