While neither side appeals as an outright bet, there are two intriguing value opportunities that could each deliver close to 100% ROI.
| 2026/27 EPL and Bundesliga betting markets | Odds |
| Nottingham Forest +0.25 AH (Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest) | 19/20 |
| Both teams to score - No (Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn) | 1/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Champions League turnarounds are the ideal ground for weekend value
Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest at Villa Park at 15:00 BST on Saturday. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund face SC Paderborn 07 at Signal Iduna Park at 14:30 BST. Both matches come straight after Matchday 1 in the Champions League - and both involve a difficult recovery gap.
Villa have 74.7 fewer recovery hours than Forest after playing Club Brugge at 17:45 BST on Tuesday. Dortmund are in a similar spot, with 77.5 fewer recovery hours than Paderborn following their entertaining Tuesday night win over Villarreal.
A short turnaround alone is not enough to justify backing against a team. The angle becomes more compelling when limited recovery time combines with a poor domestic baseline or an opponent profile that could make for a difficult afternoon.
That’s definitely the case here. Rather than treating every Champions League side as vulnerable, these two fixtures offer narrower value positions at the current implied probabilities.
Forest should keep the game tight against goalless Villa
Aston Villa's 3-2 win at Club Brugge was an open and physically demanding contest. Unai Emery's side produced 3.22 xG from 21 shots, with nine on target. However, they also conceded twice and allowed 1.53 xG at the other end.
In the post-match press conference, Villa boss Unai Emery called it “a very important step forward”. The Spaniard added that Villa had to be “resilient when [they] were struggling”.
He also admitted Boubacar Kamara and Aaron Wan-Bissaka were tired at half-time. That is particularly important, with another demanding fixture arriving just three days later.
Villa’s long-serving midfielder John McGinn also acknowledged the win. The Scotland international described Villa as “a new” team capable of showing a gritty side in a difficult away game.
That helps explain why the Brugge result can lift confidence - but it won’t be able to erase every concern.
Villa's Premier League start still does the heavier lifting for this bet. After three matches, they sit 17th with no wins, one draw, and two defeats. They are yet to find the net and have conceded five.
Their league numbers are also underwhelming. They rank 19th in the EPL for xG (2.5), with only Hull (2.3) posting a lower xG output. Also, they’ve averaged the lowest number of shots on target per 90 (0.30) in the division.
Forest are not in flying form either, so it’s not a case of Oliver Glasner’s team being hugely superior. The visitors sit 16th after two draws and one defeat. They’ve scored just twice and conceded three, but that is still steadier than Villa's opening sample.
More importantly, Forest have had six full days between fixtures. By contrast, Villa are working off a much shorter turnaround after a game that demanded plenty from them physically and mentally.
Even if they did pass Club Brugge’s examination with flying colours, is there enough left in the tank to take the game to Forest?
That makes Forest +0.25 a sensible way into the match at a 50.63% implied probability. By taking the Asian Handicap line, a Forest win pays in full, while a draw returns a half win.
Villa may well carry momentum from Belgium, but we’re still a little sceptical. Their domestic numbers and the recovery gap make the away side competitive enough for the handicap to appeal.
Paderborn’s lack of xG makes BTTS No the obvious move
Borussia Dortmund also won 3-2 on Tuesday, beating Villarreal after producing 2.83 xG from 18 shots, with six on target. The attacking side of the display was encouraging. The defensive side was less convincing, with Dortmund conceding twice from Villarreal's 1.46 xG.
That is why the short turnaround is only a caveat here, not the core of the bet. Dortmund did manage the workload to some extent in midweek. However, the stronger argument for this market comes from Paderborn’s attacking limitations rather than the hosts’ schedule.
Paderborn are 12th after two Bundesliga matches, with no wins, one draw, and one defeat, having scored no goals and conceded one. There’s not a lot happening in the way of chance creation: 1.5 xG, 18 shots and only 1.5 shots on target per game.
The latest evidence was not much better. Paderborn lost 1-0 at home to Freiburg last time out, generating just 0.77 xG from 14 shots. In their one away league match so far, they failed to score and didn’t register a shot on target.
By contrast, Dortmund's domestic start suggests they should have another fruitful Bundesliga campaign. They are third after two wins from two, having scored five goals and conceded only two. Their only home league match ended 2-0.
That provides a useful foundation for backing BTTS - No this weekend, even with such a small sample of league matches.