Galatasaray, Dortmund, Newcastle, Leverkusen, and Bodo/Glimt hold leads of at least two goals following dominant first-leg performances.
| Champions League play-off second leg markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Qarabag +3 Handicap vs Newcastle | 4/5 |
| Atletico Madrid to score over 2.5 goals vs Club Brugge | 11/10 |
| Real Madrid -1 Handicap vs Benfica | 6/5 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Italian pain and goals galore in the play-off first legs
There were 34 goals scored across the eight Champions League knockout phase play-off first legs. An average of 4.25 goals per game surpassed the 3.39 goals scored per match during the league phase.
Two action-packed nights of European football did not go entirely to plan for the favourites. Although defending champions PSG recovered from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Monaco 3-2, last season’s finalists Inter Milan suffered a 3-1 loss to Bodø/Glimt.
Kjetil Knutsen’s team have now won three consecutive UCL matches. They’ve also previously defeated Man City and Atletico Madrid, despite not playing a competitive domestic match since November.
It was a challenging week for Serie A clubs, with Juventus defeated 5-2 by Galatasaray in Istanbul. The Turkish giants dominated that game, creating 2.92 xG to Juve’s 1.12. They also won the shot count by a margin of 22-7, placing them in a strong position for the return leg.
Three of the eight ties will conclude in Northern Italy, with Atalanta also in need of a comeback. They created just 0.47 xG in their 2-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday.
Aside from PSG, Newcastle, Bayer Leverkusen, and Real Madrid secured away victories and are favoured to progress to the round-of-16. The only tie currently level is between Club Brugge and Atletico Madrid, following their 3-3 draw in Belgium.
Will the goals flow again in the second legs?
Two of the eight second legs will take place in Madrid. Atletico are still in a good position, despite surrendering a two-goal lead at the Jan Breydel Stadium. Since they are effectively out of the La Liga title race, they are expected to prioritize this competition and may rest key players on Sunday.
Los Rojiblancos ranked in the top eight with their xG tally of 16.9 in the league phase. Their attack has also improved significantly since they signed Ademola Lookman three weeks ago. With the Nigerian as a starter, they’ve already won 5-0 against Betis and 4-0 against Barcelona.
Club Brugge allowed 19.6 xG in the last round, which was the fourth-worst record. They’ve already conceded three or more goals on five occasions in the competition. That suggests backing Atleti to score over 2.5 goals offers value in the second leg.
Real Madrid’s first leg against Benfica was overshadowed by allegations of racist abuse made by Vinicius Junior against Gianluca Prestianni. Tensions will be high when the clubs meet for the third time in a month next week.
Trailing 1-0, the Portuguese side must be more aggressive at the Santiago Bernabeu. However, they face a highly motivated Real Madrid team that have won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions. It’s worth noting that five of those wins came via margins of two or more goals.
With Vinicius and Trent Alexander-Arnold in strong form, backing Real Madrid -1 Handicap could be the smart bet.
Finally, Newcastle is in a comfortable position after a 6-1 victory in Baku. Due to a tight schedule, Eddie Howe is likely to rest key players in the second leg.
That suggests that Qarabag, with a +3 handicap, may offer value. The Azerbaijanis are better than their recent performance suggested. They were beaten by more than two goals only once in the league phase.