Bayern and Dortmund offer interesting bets for their DFB-Pokal matches

With some big scorelines producing an aggregate of 43-1 in the DFB-Pokal, we expect more fireworks from Germany’s top two teams. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

DFB-Pokal first-round feast 

Thirty of the 32 first-round ties have already been played, with the lower-league sides suffering heavily. Eintracht Frankfurt’s 11-0 win and Mainz’s 9-0 victory lead a tally of 13 matches already decided by at least four goals. Consequently, the betting angle for the final two ties is about margin and team goals rather than simply backing the favourites.

Considering only the matches involving Frankfurt, Mainz, RB Leipzig, Hannover, Stuttgart, and Bayer Leverkusen during the first round, the aggregate score was 43-1. Remarkably, all six victories came for the away side. The big clubs weren’t the only sides to enjoy success in front of goal, however.

SSV Jeddeloh, who play in Germany’s fourth tier, pulled off a huge upset by beating Bundesliga 2 side Heidenheim 5-2 in the first round. That is another example of the extraordinary scorelines this competition can produce.

Both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich will play away from home in their DFB-Pokal first-round ties. BVB have a date with fifth-tier HEBC Hamburg, while Bayern travel to Osnabrück during the week. 

While both teams could rotate heavily from their Bundesliga lineups, their attacking quality makes several betting angles worth considering. 

Dortmund face the biggest mismatch 

HEBC Hamburg’s early Oberliga numbers are exactly what bettors want to see if they are looking for a Dortmund handicap. They’ve recorded two wins and three defeats from five league matches, scoring five and conceding seven. At home, they’re yet to win a game after three attempts, having conceded five goals without scoring a single goal. 

Niko Kovac’s men didn’t run up a huge score against Hamburger SV on Saturday, yet the underlying pressure was there. Dortmund took a staggering 20 shots, seven on target, and overachieved on their xG (expected goals) of 1.51 by scoring twice. They also made 33 touches in the opposition box, suggesting they could spend plenty of time camped inside HEBC’s half.

BVB averaged 14 shots, five on target and 1.58 xG across their two competitive matches in August. Those figures may not match Bayern’s attacking output, but they should be more than sufficient against a fifth-tier side struggling to score. The hosts will reap the financial rewards of this tie, but their focus is surely on Oberliga survival, even at this early stage. 

As a result, backing Dortmund's correct score might be the wisest to pursue, given that the handicap lines are set so high by the bookmakers. The gulf in quality is enough to justify the bigger handicap in this fixture. Last season, BVB beat RW Essen 1-0 in the first round, with BTTS-No also landing. 

Dortmund have also enjoyed comfortable away wins in recent DFB-Pokal campaigns. They beat Phonix Lubeck 4-1 in 2024/25 and Schott Mainz 6-1 the season before. With that record in mind, backing Kovac’s men here makes sense. 

Bayern are far stronger 

Bayern arrive with far better attacking evidence. Their 5-1 win over Stuttgart on Friday brought 21 shots, nine on target and an xG of 4.06. 

Vincent Kompany’s men created seven big chances on the night against a team that finished fourth in last season’s Bundesliga. To put their stats into perspective, the Reds averaged 21 shots, nine on target, and an average xG of 3.21 across their two August competitive fixtures. 

Osnabruck are still clear underdogs, but this isn’t the same type of mismatch as Dortmund facing HEBC Hamburg. They are a Bundesliga 2 side who picked up their first league win over the weekend from their three attempts. Their only home league match saw them lose 3-0. They conceded 17 shots and an xGA (expected goals against) of 1.71, while their xG was only 1.35. 

Additionally, seven goals conceded in three league games is further evidence that Bayern can have a field day, even with team rotation. Vincent Kompany’s side should still control the tie, and Bayern with a -3.5 handicap looks like the more measured route. The selection is playable, but it requires more certainty on team news.

Jonas Urbig is expected to replace Manuel Neuer in goal. Meanwhile, Tom Bischof, Lennart Karl, Arijon Ibrahimovic, and Bara Sapoko Ndiaye could all come into the picture. That doesn’t change the Bavarians’ favourites tag, but it could affect goals scored and winning margins. 

Osnabruck are likely to be a bigger challenge for Bayern than HEBC Hamburg will be for Dortmund, so caution is advised when considering the handicap. 

It’s worth pointing out that two of the last three seasons have seen Die Roten win 4-0 against teams from lower divisions. The 2022/23 campaign saw them win 5-0, while 2021/22 delivered a 12-0 win over Bremer. Overall, Bayern have won their last six DFB-Pokal first-round matches by an aggregate of 31-2. 

Different bets for different challenges

Dortmund -2.5 is the clearest handicap selection across the final two first-round games, with Dortmund over 2.5 team goals the strongest alternative. 

Dortmund to win 5-0 is also worth considering at a bigger price, while their over 11 corners line offers another angle.

Bayern -3 is the main handicap selection, with Bayern over 3.5 goals providing a more aggressive alternative. The 4-5 goal range is also appealing, while Bayern to win by three or more goals and BTTS - No provide shorter-priced options.

The evidence supports both favourites scoring freely, but the stronger case for a big winning margin remains with Dortmund. Bayern's attacking potential makes their team-goal and total-goals markets particularly appealing.