Man Utd’s wretched scoring record has severely disrupted their season. Coupled with their leaky defence, it’s been a recipe for disaster.
Man Utd vs Wolves | Odds |
|---|---|
Over 2.5 goals | |
Under 2.5 goals |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
What’s Behind United’s Struggles in Front of Goal?
The absence of a top-tier forward seems to be the obvious explanation. However, United’s issues have run deeper than that for many years. Money has been wasted on ageing talent, while big-money investments have flopped.
Joshua Zirkzee was recruited in the summer for £36.5m, but he has been a relative flop. The same can be said for Rasmus Hojlund too, who cost £72m the summer prior. Both had scored a raft of goals for their respective clubs before United. Yet, after seeing Hojlund struggle to adapt after leaving Serie A, it seemed strange to go back to Italy for Zirkzee.
It’s that kind of strange business which United have been carrying out in the market for years now. It seems to have finally caught up with them as they’ve been worse than ever in front of goal this season.
Amad Diallo - who has been injured since early February - has more league goal involvements than any United player bar Bruno Fernandes. That’s further evidence of how much the United attack has fallen. For context too, Diallo had only made 12 Premier League appearances before this season.
Had it not been for Fernandes, United’s issues would’ve been even more pronounced this season. The Portuguese midfielder has carried the United attack throughout the campaign. His 31 goal contributions far surpass those of the next closest United player.
United have scored a mere 38 goals after 32 league games this season. That’s their worst return in the Premier League era. To find a worse tally after the same number of games, you’d have to go back to 1973/74, when they were playing in the old First Division.
Only the bottom three, along with West Ham and Everton have scored fewer league goals than United this season. While failing to score isn’t necessarily a major problem on its own, it becomes a bigger issue because United are ranked in the top half for Premier League goals conceded.
How Should Bettors Approach United Games?
Given United’s struggles in both scoring and conceding, betting against them seems like an obvious choice. However, they don’t tend to lose too many games inside 90 minutes - they’ve only lost two of their last 11 games in all competitions. Six draws after regulation time hint at a potential betting avenue, however.
There are some interesting trends that have come to the fore in the Premier League for United. They’ve failed to score 12 times in the top flight this season. Only Everton, Southampton and Leicester have failed to score more often. On average, United fail to score in 38% of their league games.
Backing United to fail to score could be a worthwhile bet in certain games. This aligns with the fact that only 14 of their top-flight games this season saw both teams score. Backing against both teams to score could be another avenue of value for bettors.
Only games involving Everton have averaged fewer goals this season than Man Utd. Their average of 2.59 is the lowest of all the traditional big-six clubs. United’s home average of 2.88 is much higher, and their next game is at home.
Goals have been a little easier to come by at Old Trafford. At home, 62% of United’s games have seen over 2.5 goals. That leaves them somewhere around mid-table when compared to other Premier League sides.
That doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a raft of goals against Wolves. Three of United’s last four home league outings saw under 2.5 goals. Also, Ruben Amorim could rotate the squad after midweek European exploits. That could lead to United being even more disjointed.
Wolves could take advantage of this, having scored four against Spurs last weekend. It’s also worth noting that their away league games have seen over 2.5 goals on 13 of 16 occasions this season. Overs could be the way to go here, though each United game should be judged on a case-by-case basis.