Lions vs Vikings Predictions, Odds and Tips - NFL Christmas Day Games

With their playoff hopes on life support, the Detroit Lions (-5.5) face off against the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day. Vikings’ QB J.J. McCarthy suffered an injury to his throwing hand on Sunday that could help the Lions cover (-110).

Lions vs Vikings Predictions

• David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer @ 11/8
• Aaron Jones Over 63.5 Rushing Yards @ 8/11
• Lions -5.5  @ 5/6

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

Montgomery to Make His Carries Count - David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer (+135)

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery has been getting a decreasing share of touches as the season has gone on. However, he’s still getting valuable red zone carries and has scored touchdowns in three of the Lions’ previous four games.

Today, the Lions may need to lean on Montgomery, as Minnesota has been stellar against the pass recently. The Vikings, in a 16-13 victory, held the New York Giants to 13 passing yards in Week 16.  

Minnesota has held opponents to under 140 passing yards in four of its previous five games. They’ve also been merely average against the run during that time, so expect the Lions to run on way more than 17.4 percent of their plays, which was the case against the Steelers.

Montgomery’s got a decent shot to score a TD today, and I’d take his +135 odds to do so.

• Lions vs Vikings Prediction 1: David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer @ 11/8

Favorable Conditions for Aaron Jones to Excel - Aaron Jones Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

If Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy can’t play today due to a hand injury, third-stringer Max Brosmer will be the starter. Backup Carson Wentz is on IR, so Brosmer could be in line for his second career NFL start.

His first start went quite poorly, as he threw four interceptions in a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks in Week 13. The Lions are nowhere near as effective against the pass as Seattle, but it stands to reason that the Vikings may focus on the running game today.

Enter Aaron Jones, who has registered 12+ carries in three straight games and over 75 rushing yards in two of his last three. As fellow RB Jordan Mason picked up an ankle injury against the Giants, Jones managed 21 carries for 85 rushing yards, both of which were season highs.

Mason is questionable for this game and won’t be fully healthy, regardless. The Lions are giving up 6.0 yards per carry over the previous three games, which ranks 30th in the NFL during that time. The conditions are favorable for Aaron Jones to pick up over 63.5 rushing yards (-114).

• Lions vs Vikings Prediction 2: Aaron Jones Over 63.5 Rushing Yards @ 8/11

Desperate Lions Looking For Win - Lions -5.5 (-118)

In a bizarre sequence of events on Sunday, the Lions scored two game-winning touchdowns against the Steelers, but both of them were called back. So, the Lions lost the game. Now Detroit needs to win out, and Green Bay has to lose out for the former to reach the playoffs.

On Christmas Day, the Lions are taking on a Minnesota Vikings’ team likely trotting out their third-string quarterback and already eliminated from playoff contention. The Vikings are on a three-game winning streak, but McCarthy’s absence would hurt them.

They’re 2-4 ATS and SU in games when McCarthy doesn’t start this season. The Vikings didn’t score a single point when Max Brosmer started against the Seahawks. Against teams .500 or better, the Vikings are 0-4 ATS and SU without McCarthy.

Today, the Lions will give it all they have, and they’ll likely grab a comfortable victory here. Bet on the Lions -5.5 (-118).

• Lions vs Vikings Prediction 3: Lions -5.5 @ 5/6