Barcelona are now the clear favourites to win the trophy. However, there have been six different winners in the last seven years.
| Copa del Rey winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | 4/6 |
| Atletico Madrid | 5/1 |
| Real Sociedad | 6/1 |
| Athletic Club | 9/1 |
| Real Betis | 10/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Barcelona
As the current Copa del Rey holders and league leaders, Barcelona are the worthy favourites. They’ve won all four domestic trophies on offer since Hansi Flick took charge. With Real Madrid already out, it’ll take a big performance from one of the other teams to stop them.
They’ve also been handed a favourable quarter-final draw against the only remaining second-tier club. However, they are set to be without key midfielder Pedri for the trip to Albacete due to injury. Fatigue could also start to become a factor if Barca progress to the semi-finals.
Having already played nine times in 2026, we’re likely to see some rotation from Flick in this competition. That would leave an unconvincing backline even more vulnerable over the next fortnight.
Barca are currently given an implied probability of 60% to lift the trophy. That seems high with three rounds still to negotiate, and there seems to be better value elsewhere.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid’s hopes of claiming the league title are now all but over following a 0-0 draw at Levante on Saturday. They’re 10 points off the top, with 16 games to play. The Copa del Rey is therefore by far Atleti’s best shot at winning some silverware.
However, their hopes were badly damaged by a 2-1 defeat to Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League last week. Los Rojiblancos will now need to negotiate a two-legged play-off in Europe against Club Brugge in February.
That means they’ll play in five straight midweeks should they reach the Copa del Rey last four. No other club in the competition is in such a position. Diego Simeone’s side would certainly be at a unique disadvantage by the time the semi-final second legs come around in early March.
That could be a major issue for a squad that have already been weakened by January departures. Javi Galan, Conor Gallagher and Giacomo Raspadori have all left the club. That has left Atleti short on depth in some areas in recent weeks.
Their poor away record suggests they may not even get past their quarter-final trip to play Real Betis on Thursday. Simeone’s team have won just 35% of their road fixtures in all competitions this term. That drops to just 27% against fellow La Liga clubs.
Real Sociedad
With the quarter-finals and semi-final first legs scheduled in back-to-back weeks, current form is key. That should stand Real Sociedad in good stead.
The 2020 Copa del Rey champions have found a new lease of life since the appointment of Pellegrino Matarazzo. The American coach took charge at the turn of the year. La Real haven’t lost any of their six games under his guidance.
With Matarazzo at the helm, the Basques have already faced the three other main favourites to win the Copa del Rey. A 2-1 surprise victory over Barcelona was sandwiched between draws with Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club. Those outcomes should boost their confidence heading into the business end of this competition.
They were on course for victory in their derby against Athletic at San Mames on Sunday. The San Sebastian club created four big chances in that game to Athletic’s one. However, a late red card for Brais Mendez likely contributed to them conceding an 88th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw.
There’s another Basque derby next up for La Real as they visit Alaves in their cup quarter-final. That will be a tricky game, but based on current form, Matarazzo’s team should sneak through.
With so much momentum and no European distractions, Real Sociedad are the value pick to win the Copa del Rey. They’re currently only given a 14% chance of lifting the trophy.
Athletic Club
Few clubs in Spain take the Copa del Rey as seriously as Athletic Club. The competition has helped define their history and identity. With 24 titles, they’ve won it more times than Real Madrid, with their most recent triumph coming just two years ago.
However, there is reason to think there will be no repeat in 2026. Ernesto Valverde’s squad have struggled with the demands of playing Champions League football this term. They’ve played three massive games already over the past fortnight, including two key European fixtures.
Following the derby draw against Real Sociedad, there’s less than 72 hours before they visit Valencia in the cup. Athletic could be without as many as six players for that encounter, including key men Dani Vivian and Oihan Sancet. There’s a strong possibility that it will prove to be one game too many for Los Leones.
Even if they advance, their current form is not strong enough to claim the trophy. Excluding Copa del Rey matches against lower-league opponents, Athletic have won just one of their last 10 in all competitions.
Real Betis
Real Betis are another club to have won the Copa del Rey this decade. The Andalusians triumphed under their current boss Manuel Pellegrini in 2022.
They do have injury problems right now, following a busy Europa League schedule. However, they won’t play another match in Europe until after the semi-finals have been completed. That suggests Pellegrini’s team have a window of opportunity to target another domestic cup run.
Should they go all the way, three of their remaining four matches would be at La Cartuja. The Seville venue is Betis’ temporary home this season, and it will also host the cup final again. That could offer them a real edge should they advance to April’s showpiece.
Having avoided defeat in 82% of their competitive matches this term, Los Verdiblancos are genuine contenders. With an implied win probability of 9%, they offer value as potential cup kings in Spain. Those odds will shorten considerably if they see off Atletico Madrid at home this week.