Barca’s star player, Lamine Yamalis, is the favourite due to the media interest, but does he deserve the award as much as Salah, Dembele and co.?
| 2025 Ballon d’Or Winner Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 6/4 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 13/8 |
| Mo Salah | 9/1 |
| Raphinha | 9/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Barcelona’s front men strong favourites in the 2025 Ballon d’Or Winner Market
Several players from the 2024/25 La Liga campaign are at the top of the betting market, including Barcelona’s 17-year-old sensation, Lamine Yamal.
Barca’s homegrown winger has had a productive second season in senior football. However, does his output stack up against the rest of Europe’s elite below him in the latest outright betting odds?
At first glance, there are doubts as to whether Yamal truly deserves his 40% probability to win the 2025 Ballon d’Or. Could the media hype around him be exaggerated? If so, do the latest odds reflect this?
There are at least two players near the top of the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner betting market that are more likely to claim this year’s crown.
Will Yamal become the youngest Ballon d’Or winner?
Although Yamal is very young, his strong attacking form is very impressive for Barcelona. He finished the 2024/25 La Liga season with nine goals and 13 assists in 35 appearances for the Catalan giants.
That’s four more goals than his debut season and eight more assists. His progressive 2024/25 campaign explains why Barcelona were so eager to secure him with an improved, long-term contract. They will keep him at the Nou Camp until 2031.
Reportedly, his new deal includes a financial bonus for winning the Ballon d’Or. From an emotional perspective, it’s easy to see why people are backing Yamal to win this year’s award. He would become the youngest ever Ballon d’Or winner by more than three years. The current youngest winner is Ronaldo Nazario, who won the award in 1997 at the age of 21 years, three months, and five days.
However, several more established players across Europe have enjoyed even more prolific campaigns than Yamal.
Could Dembele’s breakout season tip the balance?
28-year-old French forward Ousmane Dembele is firmly in the 2025 Ballon d’Or race. After six seasons with Barcelona between 2017/18 and 2022/23, Dembele has failed to secure a regular place in the side. The pressure of his €105 million transfer fee weighed heavily on him.
In fact, his best-scoring season at Barcelona was marked by just eight goals in the 2018/19 La Liga campaign. Since his move back to France to play for Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), it appears that his form has dramatically improved.
This season has been the breakout season he’s threatened to have for the best part of a decade. Dembele scored 21 goals in 29 Ligue 1 appearances, helping PSG to secure the French title by 19 points.
Moreover, his impressive Champions League performance has put him at the top of the 2025 Ballon d’Or betting market. He’s scored eight goals in 14 Champions League games this season, playing a significant role in PSG’s qualification for the final.
Arguably, Dembele's comeback story would be an even more compelling Ballon d’Or story than Yamal winning it at 18 years old.
Salah’s scoring record shouldn’t be discounted
After his second-best scoring season for Premier League winners Liverpool, Mo Salah must have more than a 10% chance of winning the 2025 Ballon d’Or.
Unfortunately, he still hasn’t won the title yet. Despite being consecutively nominated and ranking inside the top ten, the Egyptian forward has never come close to winning it. His highest ranking was sixth place in 2018.
This was after his stellar debut season in Liverpool colours, in which he scored 32 goals in 36 games. Seven seasons later, Salah is still generating insane goal returns for his age. He ended the 2024/25 Premier League season with 29 goals in 38 appearances.
Playing in every league game at the age of 32 is an impressive achievement. It’s a testament to his physical and mental durability, along with his technical consistency.
Salah ended the 2024/25 campaign as the Premier League’s top scorer, outscoring second-placed Alexander Isak by six goals. Moreover, his minutes per goal ratio (116 minutes) was the best in the league.
Also, Salah was top of the pile in terms of assists, which is perhaps even more impressive. He assisted in 18 Liverpool goals, six more than the second-highest Premier League assister, Newcastle’s Jacob Murphy.
With a stunning 47 goal contributions, no one else in Europe comes close to matching this figure. Harry Kane is second with 35 goals and assists combined. Although the betting markets give Salah only a 10% chance of winning the 2025 Ballon d’Or, there has never been a better case for Liverpool’s ‘Egyptian King’ to win it.
Salah is comfortably the best value bet in the 2025 Ballon d’Or betting at the moment, boasting 25 more goal contributions than the current favourite, Yamal, and doing so in the most competitive domestic league.