The focus will be on Jack Grealish facing his boyhood club. However, a win for Villa could extend their lead over 4th place to 11 points.
Aston Villa vs Everton Betting Predictions
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- Aston Villa – Aston Villa (Half Time – Full Time) @ 6/4 with bet365
- Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20 with bet365
- Under 0.5 goals (Everton Total goals) @ 5/4 with bet365
Villa to get in front before halftime and clinch all three points
Aston Villa have scored first in 70% of their home matches and have been leading at halftime in 50% of such matches so far this season. Emery’s side have failed to lead at the interval in only 10% of their games at Villa Park.
The betting markets indicate there is only a 40% chance of Villa leading at halftime and maintaining that advantage until the end of the match.
Yet Villa have led at halftime in 50% of their games, and they have won their last four home EPL games against Everton. Therefore, there is at least 10% of value in these odds. When you factor in Everton’s current selection issues, it combines to create the best value bet from our trio of Aston Villa vs Everton predictions.
- Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction 1: Aston Villa – Aston Villa (Half Time – Full Time) @ 6/4 with bet365
Trends and historical data lead us to backing Over 2.5 goals
Nine of the last ten Premier League games involving Aston Villa have featured three or more goals. Meanwhile, six of the last eight meetings between Villa and Everton at Villa Park have also featured three or more goals.
The last two meetings in August 2023 and September 2024 saw four and five goals. The betting markets indicate there is only a 53.48% chance of Over 2.5 Goals occurring this weekend.
Although Everton have conceded just one goal per away game on average this season, which is lower than their xGA. This currently stands at 1.74, suggesting they should be conceding almost two goals per away game. With Everton missing defenders Branthwaite and Keane, Villa are likely to score plenty this weekend.
- Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction 2: Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20 with bet365
Clean sheet for Villa
Both teams have scored in nine of Aston Villa’s last ten Premier League games this season. However, Villa’s defensive record is impressive at Villa Park. They concede only 0.80 goals at home on average, while Everton average 0.90 goals scored per away game.
Alongside the Toffees scoring less than one goal per game, they are struggling to find a regular scorer in the final third. Their top scorer has netted just four times so far this season. Therefore, there is value in backing a clean sheet for Villa.
The betting markets suggest a 44.44% chance of Everton failing to score. However, it should be more than 50%, so there’s at least 5%-6% of value in this bet.
- Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction 3: Under 0.5 goals (Everton Total goals) @ 5/4 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Aston Villa 3-0 Everton
- Goalscorers prediction – Aston Villa: Rogers, Watkins x2
Aston Villa host Everton on Sunday afternoon, aiming to win their fifth consecutive home match over the Toffees in the Premier League.
Unai Emery’s men are still behind league leaders Arsenal. The gap between them is currently six points, but Villa have still won four of their last six games and are in rude form. Emery has a few selection issues to contend with. Emiliano Martinez is unlikely to play, while Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara are doubtful.
Their form at Villa Park has been the main reason behind their league position. They’ve averaged 2.50 points per home game so far this season. Moreover, they’ve averaged 1.80 goals scored per home game, which is above the league average (1.58 goals).
Everton are currently in a difficult situation. Having won only one game across their last six, the Toffees have returned to the bottom half of the table. However, they still sit just four points shy of fifth-placed Brentford.
Boss David Moyes appears set to welcome Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall back into the midfield on Sunday. However, he’ll replace Tim Iroegbunam, who has sustained a fresh injury of his own. Their side is much-weakened, with Michael Keane suspended, Jarrad Branthwaite still doubtful, and the likes of Ndiaye and Gueye away on AFCON duty.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Everton
Aston Villa expected lineup: Bizot, Cash, Maatsen, Lindelof, Konsa, Tielemans, Bogarde, McGinn, Buendia, Rogers, Watkins
Everton expected lineup: Pickford, Patterson, Mykolenko, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Dewsbury-Hall, Garner, Dibling, Grealish, McNeil, Barry