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WC Draw RondoGOAL

The Rondo, World Cup draw reaction edition: Who got the best draw - USMNT, Mexico or Canada? And which team from the full field looks most likely to go all the way?

Are you excited yet? Can you feel it properly? Do you know, exactly, how this is all going to go? The World Cup is always fun in abstract. There are ideas, dreams and hopes. What could this thing look like? Who do we want our team to get? But the hypothetical discussion runs out, and it all feels a bit silly. What can you say when you don't relly know anything? Not all that much. 

Well, now we know things. FIFA's gaudy 48-team World Cup was unveiled in baffling fashion at the Kennedy Center Friday afternoon, and amid the pomp and circumstance of it all, the balls coughed up a pretty compelling draw. The host nations are all in intriguing groups. There will be some terrific matchups: Portugal-Colombia, France-Norway, Brazil-Morocco. 

There really isn't a dud here. Even the groups that seem a little more predictable feature some good games - at least, on paper. It's now time, officially, to get excited. But which groups are the best? Which favorite can feel pretty good about their chances? And who might get grouped early? GOAL U.S. writers break down the draw in another edition of... The Rondo

  • Mauricio Pochettino, USMNTImagn

    Which of the co-hosts got the best draw?

    TH: The USMNT, and by some distance. Australia, Paraguay and likely Turkey? That's a winnable group. Canada did OK, too, but Switzerland aren't pushovers, and Italy, should they make it, will be tough. But Mauricio Pochettino is the guy who can be happiest. 

    RT: The USMNT will feel good. While none of their games are slam dunks, they are all winnable, which gives them a realistic path to the knockouts. Looking ahead, there’s a date with Belgium lurking, which is a lot better than France or Argentina. Overall, the USMNT will be pretty happy, although Mexico’s draw could have been a lot worse, too.

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  • FBL-WC-2026-EUR-QUALIFIER-FRA-UKRAFP

    What's the best group?

    Tom Hindle: Well, they're all pretty good! Is there a single dud here? Sure, we're supposed to get hyped and reactionary and giddy, but it's hard to see any weaknesses - even in an oft-maligned 48-team field. The safe bet has to be France, Senegal, Norway, and whichever playoff team makes it (likely Bolivia). There is a real chance that France, among the faves, could lose two of those games. Now THAT could make things interesting. 

    Ryan Tolmich: Group I gets it. France-Norway is going to be fantastic as it gives us that mouthwatering Mbappe-Haaland matchup. Then there’s Senegal, a team with the ability and experience to play with both of those sides. Mix in an underdog with a point to prove from the playoffs, and you have a very fun group.

  • Lionel Messi Argentina 2025Getty

    What's the least competitive group?

    TH: It was a BIG day for stat-pad-Ronaldo. Portugal did OK, didn't they? Colombia will push them - and could win the group - but Uzbekistan and whoever wins the first FIFA playoff will surely struggle. It's pretty easy to pick No. 1 and 2 there, even if the exact order is up for debate. 

    RT: See you in the knockouts, Argentina. They’ve been given an easier run there with Austria, Algeria, and Jordan on the docket. That should allow the champions to surge through the group and really peak later on.

  • Albania v England - FIFA World Cup 2026 QualifierGetty Images Sport

    Based on the groups, who is your early favorite to win it?

    TH: This might be a regrettable prediction later. But, very cautiously, England have done rather well here. They should navigate their group pretty easily, and the likely sequence of knockout fixtures looks OK, too. Then again, the answer is Spain, who appear to be better than pretty much everyone else at the moment. 

    RT: There are a lot of good teams, perhaps more than ever before, with real ambitions of winning this thing. Until someone knocks off Argentina, though, they’re a team worth backing, particularly given their group stage draw.

  • Colombia v Australia - International FriendlyGetty Images Sport

    Who can spring an upset?

    TH: Stand up, South Korea truthers! They are always pretty good at World Cups, and battered the USMNT a few months ago. That side will largely stick together, too, and will likely have little trouble with Mexico and South Africa. To be clear, they are not going to win the World Cup, but they're nicely placed for a little run, which is good fun. The actual "dark horse?" Colombia, who will rightly feel they should have won the 2024 Copa America final - and have only improved since. 

    RT: Maybe not a huge “upset” but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Ecuador slip past Germany and top Group E. They had the best defensive record in South America and have the confidence from knowing they did that against some of the best teams in the world. Will Germany win? Probably, but Ecuador, at the very least, will make it very, very hard.

  • Erling Haaland Norway 2025Getty

    What's the best match of the group stage?

    TH: France against Norway. Evil space demon Erling Haaland against Les Bleus? Bring it on. 

    RT: Colombia vs. Portugal is going to be a banger. Both are teams with legitimate hopes of winning, particularly if Luis Diaz keeps up his current form. Both will be desperate to finish atop the group, though, although doing so would set them on a collision course with Argentina.